2011 American League Preview

Welcome to my mammoth American League Preview. I’ve teamed up with my friend Jesse of the Travels Alone blog to break down each team and make predictions for the upcoming season. As I am doing the AL, Jesse is doing the National League (what a sucker, he has 2 extra teams). I highly recommend checking out his work by clicking on this link.

As you probably see, Jesse is way more knowledgeable and in-depth than me. But I tried my verbose best. And as you will also see, this post is friggin’ long. So skimming is encouraged or breaking up reading into different sittings. A side effect of reading this all at once is immediate near-sightedness. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Without further ado, my 2011 American League preview:

AL West

2011 Projected Finish:

1. Oakland A’s
2. Texas Rangers
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the West Coast of Land Won From Mexico after the Louisiana Purchase Encouraged Westward Movement of the World
4. Seattle Mariners

2010:

The Angels’ run of dominance came to an abrupt end last season at the hands of the Rangers, who rode their first division title since 1999 all the way to an American League pennant. After winning 5 of the previous 6 division titles, the Angels sputtered to a meager 80-82 finish, good for 3^rd place behind Oakland and 10 games behind champion Texas. Meanwhile, Seattle, a trendy preseason pick to win the division, stumbled with a historically bad offensive season and lost 101 games, despite having Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez and ace Cliff Lee for about half the season. In a curious move, Seattle dealt Lee to division rival Texas for first base prospect Justin Smoak; Texas’ offer at the 11^th hour stole Lee away from the Yankees (the Yankees offered catching prospect Jesus Montero; interesting the Mariners would choose a first basemen, who seem to be a dime a dozen, over a potential superstar catcher, a rarer commodity) and shifted the American League balance of power for last season and possibly the next several seasons. Though these four clubs saw many interesting and controversial changes in the offseason, no clear cut favorite emerged. Unless Josh Hamilton and the other Rangers mash like they did last season, this division race should come down to the final week, with any club having a chance at victory. Except Seattle. They suck.

Oakland A’s

2010 record: 81-81, 2^nd place

Overview: Despite being one of the more boring teams in baseball due to a lack of stars and poor attendance, Oakland, somewhat surprisingly, boasted the best team ERA in the AL last year. And most people probably can’t name 3 pitchers on their team. With a young rotation featuring Dallas Braden (of Perfect Game fame), Trevor Cahill, and Brett Anderson, the A’s figure to be set in the rotation for years to come. Well, at least until GM Billy Beane trades them because he can no longer pay them. Such is the life of the small market teams. But anyway, with a strong rotation, upgraded bullpen, and modestly improved lineup, the A’s could win the division if the Angels can’t get on base and Texas’ pitching proves to be a one year fluke.

Strength: Pitching in general and the rotation in particular. Rotation stalwarts Braden, Anderson, Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez all posted ERAs no higher than 3.50. Anderson figures to have the most potential of the bunch. Only 22, he easily led the rotation with a 3.41 K/BB ratio. However, the concern with Anderson may be youth. He pitched 112.1 innings last year, so the club will undoubtedly need to monitor his inning count this year. Also, Rich “Mark Prior Redux” Harden is back to where he began his once-promising career. If he can recapture some of his old form on  given nights, watch out. Meanwhile, the additions of Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour should boost an already sturdy bullpen led by closer Andrew Bailey and setup man Brad Zielger. If the pitchers hold to last year’s form, the A’s will be a difficult team to beat every night.

Weakness: Lineup. Pitching is rarely the concern with Oakland. If this team is to seriously contend for the division crown, the lineup will need to improve. After making a play at Adrian Beltre, Billy Beane went bargain hunting and picked up Hideki Matsui. Though no longer in his New York Yankee form (when he was a robot sent to Earth to hit line drives), Matsui should still provide support as a guy that can hit 20 HRs and drive in 80 runs. If nothing else, Matsui will take pitches and get on base, as he posted a .361 OBP last season while being on the frustratingly swing-happy Angels. Additionally, the A’s picked up David DeJesus from the Royals, who should provide top of the lineup relief for the A’s. Curiously, last season the A’s were 3^rd in the AL in stolen bases (primarily due to since departed Rajai Davis) and a mediocre 10^th in OPS, both stats opposite of what one would expect from a historically Moneyball team. Expect the A’s, with Matsui, to stay more patient and hit for some more power this season. They aren’t going to be the ’27 Yankees, but it’s a start.

Final Analysis: I love the entire pitching staff and would expect Cahill and Anderson to make giant strides this season and become one of the better 1-2 punches in baseball. If that happens and their lineup becomes more consistent, I like the A’s to secure a surprising and hotly contested division title.

Texas Rangers

2010: 90-72, 1^st place; American League champs

Overview: After upsetting Tampa Bay and New York on their way to the World Series, the Rangers were in turn upset (at least in my mind) by the Giants in the World Series. This year will undoubtedly be a more challenging venture for Texas to reach October, given last September they essentially drank Jack Daniel’s and butchered cattle (or whatever it is Texans do) while they cruised to the division title. They made a run to retain Lee, but simply couldn’t match the dollars Philadelphia threw at him. Also, one has to figure that Josh Hamilton cannot possibly continue his ridiculous offensive season from last season. In posting a 6.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement; I’m not a stat guy, but c’mon) and 1.044 OPS, he hit .359 with 32 HRs and 100 RBIs…and he missed basically all of September due to injuries. Also, though he struggled post-All Star Break, the departure of Vladimir Guerrero will certainly leave a hole in the lineup…

Strength: But that lineup is still a bear. Newcomers Mike Napoli (a fantasy owner’s dream) and Adrian Beltre add even more pop to a lineup that has never had a dearth of power going back to the days of Ivan Rodriguez and Juan Gonzalez. Yes, the ballpark and Texas heat will inflate their numbers (ask Tim Salmon) but these guys can mash. Michael Young is no longer the player he once was, but is still a serviceable top-of-the-order player. Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus are among the more underrated players in baseball, and Chris Davis will contribute with occasional power. Texas probably will not hit as well as last season, but given their lineup depth, expect them to being amongst the AL leaders in all power categories.

Weakness: Rotation. This team is basically the A’s antithesis. Led by Lee (who had an 8.0 K/BB ratio, which is just nonsense and should be illegal), their young staff probably overachieved last season. Guys like Tommy Hunter, Colby Lewis, and C.J. Lewis (posted a 4.6 WAR and who Cliff Lee said had the best stuff in the game; whatever) all had career years. How much of that was predicated on Lee’s presence/influence is unknown. For this team to return to the playoffs, these guys will likely need to make up for Lee’s absence (ok, Lee didn’t post the best regular season numbers while in Arlington (3.98 ERA/ 1.6 WAR), but still). Unfortunately, it was recently reported Tommy Hunter is going to be sidelined for about the first 6 weeks of the season. For a potentially thin rotation that is trying to prove itself, his absence could put the Rangers in an early season bind. It is doubtful that newly acquired and once unhittable Diamondback ace Brandon Webb will provide much relief to the rotation. Fortunately for Texas, the bullpen is strong with 2010 Rookie of the Year Netfali Feliz, Darren Oliver, and Scott Feldman, amongst others. Also, the pen proved last season to be able to work a ton of innings (an AL leading 503.2) in the dog days of summer, as only Wilson and Lewis topped the 200 inning mark for Texas.

Final Analysis: It would surprise nobody if Texas won the division or even returned to the World Series in 2011. In fact, most pundits label them as the team to beat out West. Given they are the champs, the experts are probably right. But I just have a hunch the rotation will underwhelm this year and Josh Hamilton, who is constantly nagged by injuries, will show he is in fact mortal. However, if the rotation performs well, Texas will have one of the most complete teams in baseball, on the mound, field, lineup, and bench. If they don’t win the division, expect them to contend for the Wild Card.

LA Angels

2010: 80-82, 3^rd place

Overview: The Angels had one of the more infamous offseasons in recent memory. After owner Arte Moreno proclaimed the team would wheel and deal this offseason to upgrade the club (a declaration that is beginning to fall on deaf ears), the Angels missed out on all the big name free agent targets. The biggest punch to LA’s collective gut was long-desired Carl Crawford electing to sign with AL rival Boston, despite nearly all MLB executives and pundits believing Crawford to LA was a done deal. To compensate, the Angels dealt C/1B Mike Napoli and much maligned Juan Rivera to Toronto for Vernon Wells and his supposedly untradeable $86 million left on his contract (Toronto later flipped Napoli to Texas for RP Frank Francisco). It’s not that Wells isn’t a good player; he’s just not worth $86 million. Other than the Wells gamble, the Angels spent Winter money inexplicably paying Jeff Mathis to avoid arbitration, lowballing future ace Jered Weaver, and picking up a couple left-handed relievers in Scott Downs and Hisanori Takahashi. Both will upgrade a large weakness from the 2010 club, but that offseason free agent haul is unlikely to satisfy any Angel fans.

Strength: Jeff Mathis. Just kidding. The strength seems to lie in front end starting pitching and outfield defense. First, the pitching. In a very underrated move before last year’s trade deadline, the Angels picked up Dan Haren, one of baseball’s most durable pitchers. In 14 starts with the Angels, Haren posted a 2.87 ERA and 7.2 K/9IP. But the guy who made huge strides was Jered Weaver, who led all baseball in strikeouts and was amongst the pitching leaders in WAR (5.4). Meanwhile, Ervin Santana provided a bounce back year; 2011 will be important for him to prove he can be a consistent 2^nd or 3^rd started in the majors. Joel Pinero proved to be a solid free agent pickup, and his injury in August seemed to correlate with the Angels falling out of division contention. The huge question mark is one-time AL strikeout king Scott Kazmir, who at only 27 already appears to be washed up due to reduced fastball velocity and a growing inability to throw what was once a devastating slider. Seeing Sean Rodriguez become a solid role player for Tampa Bay has to irritate the Angels brass. If Kazmir can improve to even respectability, the Angels will be thrilled.

Though all defensive measurements infer Vernon Wells has lost a step as a CF, the Angels’ plan to insert him into LF should help mask his decline; plus, his defense will be a huge upgrade over Juan Rivera or Bobby Abreu. The same goes for Torii Hunter after he moved to RF last August to make space for defensive wizard Peter Bourjos. Bourjos may already be the best CF in baseball. The concern is if he can hit enough to warrant his glove staying on the field. If Bourjos can hit well enough to play all season, a great injustice will have been done if he doesn’t win his first of many Gold Gloves. On the diamond, the Angels are less reliable but still decent. At SS, Erick Aybar is capable of catching up to most balls and completing throws many shortstops simply can’t make (cough cough – Derek Jeter – cough cough). Kendrick is serviceable at 2B, Morales seems to be improving at 1B, and renowned baseball statistician Bill James ranked Jeff Mathis as the best defensive catcher in baseball. At least he can do something.

Weakness: Getting on base. Simply put, the Angels don’t get on base. The departure of Matsui and acquisition of Wells will only exasperate this problem. Abreu and Hunter seemed like the only Angels last year interested in getting on base (the normally swing-first Hunter posted a respectable .354 OBP last year). As a team, the Angels OBP was a paltry .311, good for second to last in the league. As a result they finished 9^th in runs scored. Compare that 2009 when a lineup that dedicated itself to patience finished 3^rd in OBP and 2^nd in runs scored. It is still unclear if Kendrys Morales can consistently work counts; for the Angels to succeed, Morales will not only need to provide prodigious power numbers, but also draw walks and work counts. Morales will be hard-pressed to rack up enormous RBI totals due to the free swinging nature of guys like Aybar, Kendrick, and Wells.

Final Analysis: If everything comes together, the Angels could certainly win the West. However, they need almost everyone in their lineup to have bounce back seasons, as almost everyone fell well below their career averages. Additionally, the bullpen, while improved, will need young guys like Jordan Walden and Michael Kohn to pitch well, especially when the inevitable Fernando Rodney meltdown occurs. Overall, most of the burden will fall on Weaver and Haren. If they pitch like aces, the Angels can win the West. If they only pitch well, the team will have too many internal obstacles to overcome to reach the postseason.

Seattle Mariners

2010: 61-101, 4^th place

Overview: While the lineup was always suspect, nobody could have envisioned the Mariners falling off the face of the planet like they did in 2010. Yes, they play in a notorious pitcher’s park, but they still finished last in the AL in just about every major offensive category. They hit 101 HRs the entire season. Toronto hit 156 more than Seattle. Their team leader was Russell Branyan with 15. After having a monster 2009 with the Angels, major acquisition Chone Figgins hit only .259 while striking out 114 times. Lucky for Seattle, they still had Ichiro Suzuki, who in Ichiro fashion had 214 hits and stole 42 bases (caught only 9 times). If not Ichiro, who knows what would have happened to Seattle’s already porous offense.

Strength: Due to that aforementioned offense, it was somewhat a miracle Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez finished 13-12 despite receiving only 3.1 runs of support per start. Hernandez’ 2.27 ERA led the AL, and his WHIP and K’s were 2^nd only to Cliff Lee and Jered Weaver, respectively. Hernandez’ victory marks a shift in how the public thinks about pitching statistics. Since the award is supposed to go to the best pitcher, Wins are really an irrelevant stat because it is dependant on how your offense fares and if your bullpen can hold a lead. It was only 6 years ago when Bartolo Colon robbed Johan Santana of a Cy Young award simply because Colon was the only AL pitcher to reach the hyped 20-win plateau. If Hernandez pitched for the Yankees last season, it’s not unreasonable to think he could have won 25 games. The Mariners do not possess many strengths, but in Hernandez, they may have the best pitcher in baseball. Which is why it’s going to be a bummer when he signs with New York in December 2014.

Weakness: As I mentioned, the offense. No reason to expect new additions Adam Kennedy, Jack Cust, and Miguel Olivo to help. This offense needs a major overhaul more than a simple tweak.

Final Analysis: King Felix will have another monster year, but the team will finish well out in the division race. A lack of quality starters behind Hernandez as well as the offense will prove to be Seattle’s doom. A 70 win season would be a welcome surprise.

AL Central

2011 Projected Finish

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

2010:

The Twins christened their brand new ballpark, Target Field, with a division title, and did so with relative ease. And they made their second half push without former MVP Justin Morneau, who missed the last half of the season and the playoffs due to a concussion. Chicago’s desperate August trade for Manny Ramirez proved to be just that: desperate. And despite having Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers finished at .500 and Armando Galarraga had a Perfect Game stolen from him on a boneheaded Jim Joyce call at first base; it just wasn’t the Tiger’s year. Kansas City found themselves in a familiar position: the AL Central cellar. The Royals still have not made the playoffs since their World Series championship team in 1985, led by George Brett and Don Denkinger. And then there’s the Indians. They are making 2007, when they were within one win of the World Series, seem like a very long time ago. It has to sting seeing Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, former Indian Cy Young winners, excel and lead teams to deep postseason runs outside of Cleveland. Last season, Cleveland finished 25 games out of first as they settled for a 4^th place division finish.

Minnesota Twins

2010: 94-68, 1st place, lost to NYY in ALDS

Overview: Even with a frigid home field advantage, the Twins still could not get past their playoff Kryptonite last October, the Yankees. Justin Morneau’s long awaited return to a potentially potent lineup that features already first-ballot Hall of Famer Joe Mauer notwithstanding, the Twins will have to make up losing many key players from last year’s team. Gone is the Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy double-play tandem in lieu of light hitting Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka, (sidenote: though he never puts up the best numbers, I love Orlando Hudson; him and Orlando Cabrera are two guys I would always love to have on my team). Without bringing in any significant offensive players, the Twins will rely heavily on Mauer, Morneau, and an aging Jim Thome.

Strength: Assuming Morneau can return to his pre-injury form, when he hit .345 with a 1.055 OPS and 5.4 WAR, the Twins could boast one of the AL’s more formidable lineups. Joe Mauer didn’t have the same caliber season as his legendary 2009 campaign, so he “struggled” to a .327 average with a .871 OPS (a concern is he only hit 9 HRs last season, when the previous year he showed the ability to be a 25 HR/year guy). I expect Mauer’s already All-Star caliber numbers to improve due to Morneau’s presence batting behind him and offering protection. Though not bringing in any new blood, a key signing for Minnesota was the retention of Thome. Believe it or not, in only 108 games the 39 year-old hit 25 HRs and recorded a 1.039 OPS. Thome is your prototypical DH. An aging slugger that can mash but isn’t required to be a defensive liability. Yet, age is a nevertheless a concern with Thome; at some point, he has to break down. Guys like Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Delmon Young all provide pop in this lineup, though not the sabermetrically attractive numbers like Mauer and Morneau. At the top of the lineup is Denard Span. Like Hudson, his numbers don’t back up how much I like him. He doesn’t get on base nearly as much as one would like from a top of the order type hitter, but I like his speed and he seems to hit the ball squarely when I watch the Twins (not my most scholarly answer but I can’t really explain why I like him).

Weakness: Ron Gardenhire rotations have never been overly impressive. Other than Santana, they really haven’t had an ideal ace (Brad Radke was their ace one season for goodness sake, and that team made the playoffs). This is probably why they have failed to reach the World Series in the 2000s, because in October front line pitching usually wins out (the 2002 Angels are a fluky exception, unless you consider Jarrod Washburn an ace and Kevin Appier a reliable #2). But in the regular season, you can get away with blah starters if you have a lights out bullpen, which the Twins usually do. Last year, they ranked 4^th in the AL in bullpen ERA with superstar closer Joe Nathan sidelined all season with an injury. The Twins are obviously concerned to see how Nathan responds after a year off, but if that was their only concern they could probably survive. However, 4 key relievers went elsewhere this offseason: Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain (to division rival Chicago, no less), Brian Fuentes, and Jon Rauch. The only reliever of note they brought in was Jim Hoey, who was just sent down to Triple-A. That means much of the bullpen onus will fall on righty Matt Capps and lefty Jose Mijares, especially if Nathan struggles. Capps is more than capable, given in 27 innings with the Twins last year he gave up only 6 earned runs and struck out 21 batters. With the Twins unspectacular rotation and a new lack of bullpen depth, Capps will have to prove himself even more. Don’t be surprised if he is one of the more overworked relievers in the AL next season.

Final Analysis: I’ve been a fool by picking against a Ron Gardenhire teams many times in the past, so I’m not about to do it now. Even with the pitching questions, the Twins always seem to get enough out of their starters; the Twins are so fundamentally sound in all areas of the game, like base running and defense, that it usually makes up for any pitching deficiencies. It’s a dumb cliché, but this team knows how to win and Gardenhire has proved, like Mike Sciscioa, to get the most out of his players. I expect big years from Mauer and Morneau to ultimately be the difference in a tight division race that will come down to the last series.

Chicago White Sox

2010: 88-74. 2^nd place

Overview: You got to hand it to White Sox GM Ken Williams. He isn’t bashful. A year after gambling by acquiring oft-injured Jake Peavy (a gamble that still hasn’t paid off, by the way) from San Diego, Williams absorbed approximately the remaining $4 million of Manny Ramirez’ contract in August in an effort to catch the red hot Twins, even though it appeared the White Sox were already long shots. As has been their MO of late, the White Sox hit a ton of homers but were in the middle of the AL pack in runs scored, probably due to their inability to manufacture runs. The Sox are built for their ballpark. Last season, U.S. Cellular Field saw 1.545 HRs per game, the most in the game (even more so than launching pads like Coors Field the Great American Ballpark). To boost the power source even more, the Sox acquired Adam Dunn. At this point in his career, you know what Dunn brings to the table. He’s going to strike out 175 times, but he’s also going to draw about 100 walks and hit 40 HRs. Don’t be surprised if Dunn hits 45 homers in hitter friendly Chicago.

Strength: The aforementioned power. Dunn joins Konerko, who blasted 39 homers last year in route to a .977 OPS and 5.0 WAR. The rest of the lineup is a bit iffy but full of promise. 3B Gordon Beckham and SS Alexei Ramirez are both young, but have shown flashes of their tremendous hitting talent in the past. After injuries cut short his MVP caliber 2008 season, Carlos Quentin has found difficulty regaining form. Though only batting .243 last season, Quentin hit 26 HRs and 25 doubles in 131 games, suggesting maybe he is returning to form; he is, after all, only 29. In the outfield, Alex Rios may never live up to the $70 million contract the Blue Jays gave him, but he still provides more depth to the lineup, as he hit 21 HRs last season.

Weakness:  The rotation remains a question mark, as Chicago’s starters ranked in the bottom half of the AL. The bullpen looks strong; Matt Thornton is an emerging star and even though they lost bullpen staple Bobby Jenks, it appeared he was nearing the tail end of his productivity anyway. With Jenks gone, Ozzie Guillen won’t have to feel obligated to insert him because he’s a closer and that’s what he’s paid to do (which is the dumbest and laziest argument in baseball; why put him in if he sucks, even if he is overpaid?) But the rotation has a bunch of good-not great guys, though it is probably better than Minnesota’s. Mark Buehrle is serviceable, but no longer the player he once was (but I love watching him because of his brisk pace). Jake Peavy has superstar talent trapped in an injury plagued body. The emerging ace is probably John Danks, who submitted a very solid season, leading all Sox pitchers with a 4.9 WAR. To supplement the lineup’s power source, the rotation needs to provide support. That likely means Danks needs to have a repeat of last season, while guys like Buerle, Peavy, and even Edwin Jackson need to rekindle some past magic.

Final Analysis: While their pitching staff is in better shape than Minnesota’s, Chicago is also more apt to get into a few 11-9 type of games this year due to their ballpark. Additionally, with an offense so predicated on home runs, Chicago is also destined to have their share of low scoring games on nights when the power simply isn’t there. Minnesota is usually more even-keel. Also, though explosive, Chicago’s lineup appears to be less dynamic than Minnesota’s. It features a bunch of guys waiting to land haymakers, which is great, but would be better if there were some guys on base first. Dunn should help that problem, but he isn’t going to steal bases or create runs. Juan Pierre is a guy that could provide a spark, given that he stole 68 bases last year and reached base a respectable 34% of the time. But at 33, one has to wonder how much he has left in the tank. Chicago will be in it until the end, but I think Minnesota’s offense is slightly better equipped to win the division than Chicago’s. Slightly.  

Detroit Tigers

2010: 81-81, 3^rd place

Overview: The Tigers may have had the most splashy winter for AL teams that aren't named the Red Sox. They acquired C/1B/DH Victor Martinez and brought back Magglio Ordonez in the hopes he can rekindle some of his more productive years while he was in a Tiger uniform. They also made sure to re-sign 3B Brandon Inge, a valuable addition to any ballclub given his ability to fill in seemingly anywhere. The Tigers ranked 8th in the AL last season and, as a fitting result, finished .500. The Tigers hope their moves to improve the offense can give support to superstar 1B Miguel Cabrera (not to be confused with moral support he is receiving from Dave Dombrowski and AA). In posting a 6.9 WAR and 1.042 OPS, Cabrera hit .328 with 38 HRs and 126 RBIs. If his off-the-field troubles don't become a distraction, there's no reason to think the game's 2nd best hitter (behind Pujols) won't have another monster year. Martinez will add even more protection. The Tiger's aggressive offseason spending was to put in place a team that can contend now, so that Cabrera's prime years are not wasted.

Strength: Even with a guy like Cabrera manning the heart of the lineup, I believe the Tiger's greatest strength lies in the depth of their starting rotation. Newly acquired Brad Penny is another risk, but if he performs well and eats innings, this rotation has a chance to be scary. The staff is, of course, highlighted by flamethrowing Justin Verlander. He struggled a bit to open the season, but in his last 17 starts he posted an average Game Score of 61 (yeah I had to look up what that meant too; if you don't want to look it up, it basically means he was really, really good). But the Tigers know what they are getting from Verlander. Their success will hinge in their rotation’ young guys, like Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello. The Tigers would love to see Porcello return to his 2009 form, when he competed for Rookie of the Year honors. Scherzer, however, looks like a star waiting to erupt. After struggling and being sent down to the minors for a tune up, Scherzer a 2.46 ERA upon being recalled. I expect Penny and Porcello to improve marginally this season, and see Scherzer becoming a dominant force in the AL. Couple that with the always steady Verlander, and the Tigers will possess one of the better rotations in the American League. 

Weakness: Everyone else in the lineup not named Cabrera or Martinez. Those guys will hit, but will anyone else? Ordonez and Carlos Guillen (37 and 35, respectively) aren't getting any younger. Though I praised Inge for his versatility and generally slick glove at 3rd, he's not going to win many games with his bat (13 HRs last year). Once highly touted Jhonny Peralta is now on the Tigers, but who knows what he can provide. Last season, Autin Jackson proved to be a more than capable replacement for Curtis Granderson (in fact, he probably had the better season). Jackson hit .293 last season, but he needs to improve his OBP (.345) and reduce his strikeouts (a whopping 170) if he wants to be a viable leadoff hitter. He possesses all the tools, he just needs to put them into motion.

Final Analysis: The Tigers have potential in all facets of the game. If Joel Zumaya comes back to the bullpen (a big if), that will alleviate Jose Valverde and the rest of the bullpen's pressure. But I think there are too many things that need to go right for Detroit, offensively speaking. I see their pitching staff exceeding many expectations, but I don't see them scoring enough runs with Cabrera to win the Central. Plus, an injury to one of their stars, (Verlander, Cabrera, Martinez, Scherzer) and they're done.

Cleveland Indians

2010: 69-93

Overview: As I hinted at in the 2010 recap, 2007 feels like a long time ago for the Indians. Then considered one of the best young teams in baseball, with a staff led by CC Sabathia and Fasuto Carmona and 24 year-old Grady Sizemore looking like the future best CF in baseball. But 3 years is a long time. With constant injuries to Sizemore and slugger Travis Hafner (remember the Pronk days?), a post-2007 setback for Carmona, and the trades of Cy Young winners Sabathia and Cliff Lee, the Indians are a shell of their 2007 club that was within a dominant Josh Beckett performance and Sabathia/Carmona meltdowns from winning their first World Series since they were led by Charlie Sheen, Tom Berenger, and Wesley Snipes (the primary piece of the CC trade, 1B Matt LaPorta, hasn’t exactly soothed CC’s departure, as last year he hit a paltry .221 with 12 HRs and a .668 OPS, while CC continues to mow through hitters in the Bronx). With their only major offseason acquisition being mediocre Austin Kearns, the Indians will compete with Kansas City for fourth place.

Strength: Using Shin-Soo Choo and Fausto Carmona as trade bait. Seriously. It’s never a good thing when your best asset is being able to get other desperate teams to overpay for your players. But such is the position the Indians are in. After reviewing their roster, they don’t appear to be particularly good at anything. But near the trade deadline, with other teams becoming desperate, the Indians should be able to find a plethora of suitors for Choo and Carmona. Choo has quietly become one of the better all-around outfielders in the American League. In route to posting a 7.3 WAR with a .401 OBP, Choo hit .300 and tacked on 22 HRs and 22 stolen bases, although many casual baseball fans probably don’t realize he exists. Best of all for Cleveland’s sake, Choo is not eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season, meaning a team would be more likely to give up an attractive package of players if that means keeping a guy for an additional two seasons after 2011.

Meanwhile, though Carmona had a nice season (3.77 ERA), he still performed nowhere near his Cy Young caliber 2007 season. Still, assuming he pitches up to last year’s standards, many teams will ask about Carmona as the trade deadline approaches, given that good pitching is usually the hottest commodity in a pennant chase. Plus, Carmona has a friendly contract that allows for team options 2012-2014.

Weakness: For the Tribe, the concern is and has been the injury bug. To exceed expectations and achieve marginal success this season, the Indians will need CF Sizemore (only 33 games in 2010) and SS Cabrera (97 games) to return and contribute. Even young, promising catcher Carlos Santana will be relied upon to come back from a knee injury and produce, assuming he can change his “Evil Ways” and hit better than his .260 clip in 150 at-bats last season. If their lineup is healthy and performs up to potential, they could give many pitchers fits this season. But the safe bet is the continued health problems and struggles of former cornerstones Sizemore, Cabrera, and Hafner.

Final Analysis: The Indians are basically the Royals with more star power. They do have some very good players, but nothing particularly elite and they don’t really do anything that great. In fact, after Carmona, their starting pitching is porous, with Carlos Carrasco, Justin Masterson, and Mitch Talbot each being asked to fill a spot in the rotation. Unless Sizemore quickly becomes a superstar (the clock is ticking and near midnight) and the Indians’ prospects develop into solid everyday players that can fill in around Choo and Santana, the Indians are in for a bleak decade.

Kansas City Royals

2010: 67-95, 5^th place

Overview: I’m gonna level with you guys. I know nothing about this team. I look at their lineup and wonder how a major league team can field a lineup with somebody named Kila Ka’aihue projected to bat 4^th and renowned power hitter Melky Cabrera batting 5^th (I bet Miguel Cabrera could, and has, hit more home runs while completely wasted). After jettisoning Zack Greinke, who was KC’s only star player other than Joakin Soria, to Milwaukee in the offseason, Luke Hochevar will start Opening Day vs the Angels (by the way, expect Soria to once again represent Kansas City in the All Star Game; in his 4 seasons, he’s posted a 2.01 ERA with a ridiculous 0.99 WHIP, along with 281 Ks in 255 IP; he may pitch for the Royals, but dude can deal). Hochevar’s peak came in 2005 when the Dodgers selected him 40^th overall out of Tennessee. Since then, he has posted a 5.60 ERA in 69 appearances with the Royals. Hardly ace-caliber. The Royals best everyday player is DH Billy Butler, who last season hit .318 with 15 homers and a .388 OBP. Ideally, you would like your best player to hit for some more pop, but Butler is a solid piece to a puzzle that Kansas City is still in the process of trying to solve. So let’s just get this over with so I can move on to some real teams.

Strength: From what I hear, the farm system is amazing. Everyone, including ESPN’s Keith Law and Baseball America, seemed to have the Royals farm well out in front of every other club. Baseball America was so bold as to say the 2011 Royals have the best collection of prospects in the past 22 years. 9 Royals were ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100 (2 more than next closest Tampa Bay), including 3 in the top 10 and 5 in the top 20. From what I’ve read, the leader in the group is first basemen Eric Hosmer, followed by 3B Mike Moustakas and OF Wil Myers (sorry, but you’re only getting names; I’m not doing any in-depth research for the Royals).

Having talented prospects is great and is a testament to the Royals scouting department. But I’ve always viewed prospects very skeptically. They are, after all, only prospects and nothing is guaranteed. Being an Angel fan, I’ve seen my share of busts, busts that were supposed to be “sure things” on the big club. Minor league legends like Dallas MacPherson and Brandon Wood flamed out. Jeff Mathis was supposed to be neck-and-neck with Joe Mauer in terms of talent. Even Howie Kendrick hasn’t lived up to the promise of multiple batting titles and a .350 average (Kendrick is a solid player, he just had the misfortune of being severely overhyped). Of course, a team could score with a bushel of players like the famed Yankees core of Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada, all home grown players that have led the Yankees to multiple championships. Hanging on to prospects instead of trading them for proven big league talent is always risky. The Royals are already aware of the perils of hanging on to minor league stars. Projected starting LF Alex Gordon was one of the game’s “can’t miss” 3B prospects out of the nearby University of Nebraska. He was selected 2^nd overall in 2005 and named the Minor League Player of the Year in 2006 by Baseball America. So what has he done for the Royals? In 4 seasons, he has hit .244, with 45 total home runs, 161 RBIs, and a .328 OBP. Last season he posted a -0.1 WAR. Yeah, it is barely negative, but that means he is worse than your average player. Many pundits believe this is Gordon’s make-or-break year. Ya think?

Weakness: Existing. Seriously, this team should be contracted. Same goes for Florida and Pittsburgh. If your games regularly draw under 1000 fans (Florida) and if you haven’t been close to mattering in almost 20 years (Pittsburgh), you shouldn’t have a team because you’re just diluting the talent pool, assuming you have any talent.

Final Analysis: The Royals will lose close to 100 games again and teams chasing playoff berths in September will rejoice when seeing the Royals on the upcoming schedule. We should get a good look at their heralded prospects throughout the season as they will be well out of the race by Mother’s Day.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox, AL champion
2. New York Yankees, win Wild Card
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

2010:

In what is becoming the norm, baseball’s best division didn’t disappoint in 2011. The Rays and Yankees battled for the division title until the end of the season, with the Rays winning their 2^nd division title in 3 years. Despite their suffering a comedic amount of injuries, the Red Sox finished 2^nd in the Wild Car standings, albeit 6 games behind the Yankees. Meanwhile, traditional AL East bottom feeders displayed signs of life. Behind Jose Bautista’s out-of-nowhere season, Toronto led all of baseball in home runs and became a difficult team to beat with their raw power. For Baltimore, a midseason manager switch to Buck Showalter resuscitated the Orioles as they closed their season with a 34-23 record, best among all AL East teams. With a myriad of roster changes for all teams in the division, 2011 will likely be even more entertaining this season.

Boston Red Sox

2010: 89-73, 3^rd place

Overview: Talk about an impressive offseason. The Sawx brought in Adrian Gonzalez via trade to sure up their lineup. Then they stole Carl Crawford from the Angels to improve their team speed, defense and, oh yeah, their offense. If that wasn’t enough, they also brought in Dan Wheeler and Bobby Jenks to supplement Daniel Bard and the rapidly declining Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen. And don’t forget about their rotation, which has the potential to be the deepest in the league. Though they lost Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, both of whom had stellar years, the team or fans likely won’t even notice. This team has the makings to be a juggernaut.

Strength: If the Sox can avoid last year’s chronic injuries, take your pick. Here’s the projected top 7 manager Terry Francona gets to fill out everyday: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Drew. In short, their lineup is not fair and will create numerous problems for lineups with its combination of power (Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Drew), speed (Ellsbury, Crawford), and patience (all of them except for maybe Crawford). Gonzalez is my preseason pick to win the MVP for several factors. First, there is the obvious case of his numbers. Last season, he posted a 6.3 WAR (7.0 in 2009) after hitting .298 with 31 HRs and a .904 OPS. And that was in San Diego, a pitcher’s park if there ever was one, where Petco Park is an absolute graveyard for batters. Now, he is in hitter friendly Fenway Park, a venue where he could pepper the Green Monster a la Moo (typo intended) Vaughn. Second, he is going to have elite-level talent around him. On the offensively challenged Padres, pitchers could avoid Gonzalez because who else was going to hurt them? David Eckstein? Not so on the Sox. Pitchers will pay dearly for walking any Red Sox. Gonzalez will get pitches to hit.

Another strength will be the outfield defense. With the addition of Crawford, it’s possible no ball falls in left field this season. I’m only being slightly sarcastic. Gimme hits will be hard to come by with this club, especially when pairing Crawford with CF speedster Ellsbury. On the infield, Gonzalez brings a Gold Glove caliber, um, glove to first. The departure of Beltre will surely be missed in this area, but Youkilis is more than capable at third, given he broke in with Boston at this position.

Lastly, Theo Epstein is himself a strength. He is not afraid to make trades throughout the season to improve his team’s depth, whether in the bullpen or on the bench. Remember 2004 heroes Orlando Cabrera (my baseball man crush) and Dave Roberts? Both of them were acquired at the trade deadline. Without Roberts’ clutch steal in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS off of Mariano Rivera, the Sox are likely swept and unable to complete the greatest comeback in the history of sports. A fearless GM is a great luxury to have if a team needs a midseason tweak (paging Tony Reagins).

Weakness: I don’t want to call it a weakness, but more like a The Reason The Red Sox Could Potentially Struggle At Times This Season. That is rotation depth. The concern isn’t so much with Jon Lester (5.0 WAR, 225 Ks) and Clay Buchholz (5.4 WAR, 2.33 ERA) as it is with John Lackey, Josh Beckett, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. After being the cornerstone of the Angels rotation for years, Lackey commanded a ton of money and the Red Sox bit, to which Lackey did not live up to. In his most ineffective season since 2003, Lackey posted a 4.40 ERA with a 1.419 WHIP and only 6.5 Ks/9. More disheartening for Sox fans, though, was Beckett. Their postseason hero was, simply put, awful. Beckett posted a 5.78 ERA with a 1.535 WHIP, and allowed 20 home runs in only 21 starts. All this added up to a –1.0 WAR. Let me reiterate. Beckett was so bad last year, he lost his team one more game than if they just replaced him with an average, run-of-the-mill player. And he made $12.1 million! Must be nice to play in a big market, especially when you have a “big game” reputation. Sox fans are holding onto hope Beckett bounces back into odd year form (for some fluky reason, Beckett’s career ERA is 1.18 lower in odd years than even years). It’s unlikely Beckett will ever regain his dominate form since he is now on the wrong side of 30 and has a lot of mileage, accumulated from many regular season and postseason starts, adding up on his right arm’s odometer. The Sox will settle for marginal improvement.

Final analysis: Obviously, I like Boston’s chances. I don’t see any glaring weakness in their club. With their improvements and the weakening of division foes New York and Tampa Bay, I think Boston will run away with the division and take their postseason berth all the way to a 3^rd World Series title in 8 years. 100 wins is also in play. The thing that will hinder that quest is improved Toronto and Baltimore teams. But as long as they win a title, nobody in Boston will care. And this truly pains me to say because I hate Boston. Their fans are annoying and act privileged since ending their curse, curse being another way to say they choked in big games. The fans act like they are the Yankees. I hate the Yankees, but seriously, when you win about 25% of all World Series titles, then you have the right to be as obnoxious as Yankee fans.

(And if any Boston fans somehow end up reading this, nice going with the Kendrick Perkins trade; if Kevin McHale didn’t gift wrap KG to the Celtics, the Lakers would be hiring Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to sweep up the championship confetti from 3 straight titles. I would like to say the Lakers will see them in June, but they won’t. Enjoy getting shredded by LeBron and/or Derrick Rose in May)

New York Yankees

2010: 95-67, 2^nd place, won Wild Card, lost in ALCS to Texas

Overview: From many predictions and previews I’ve read, it’s becoming trendy to pick the Yankees to miss out on the playoffs this year and even finish behind Tampa Bay and Toronto. I, however, cannot pick against them. No matter how poor their offseason was or how many holes they have, this team just wins. It’s annoying to watch the Yankees play an inferior opponent that gets up 2 or 3 runs early. For many clubs, the game would be over. But for the Yankees, that just means they will score 4 runs in the 8^th with a couple RBI singles before A-Rod hits a home run, all before Rivera comes in and slams the door in the face of Inferior Team A (one of baseball’s greatest mysteries is how Rivera has been so dominant while throwing really only one pitch his entire career, the devastating cut fastball). I’ve seen this script before. Even if the Yankees get off to a slow start, they will pour it on and be back in the race by the All Star Game. The offense is too talented.

But don’t get me wrong, their offseason was a colossal failure that rivaled the Angels’ ineptitude, which is hilarious for all Yankee haters. After putting all their eggs in the Cliff Lee basket (and also failing to get Greinke via trade and also losing Andy Pettitte to retirement), the Yankees found themselves scrambling to look for pitching help when Lee elected Philly (haha to all the Yankee fans talking smack to Lee’s wife in the playoffs; but hey, A.J. Burnett should do just fine filling Lee’s slot in the rotation…a 5.26 ERA with 25 HRs allowed is good, right?). Anyone want the Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Mark Prior trio? Anyone? If this was 2003, the Yankees’ rotation would look pretty set. But in 2011, that staff simply won’t cut it. With Kerry Wood going back to the Cubs, the Yankees bolstered their bullpen by signing Tampa Bay closer Rafael Soriano to a 3 year, $35 million deal (with 2 opt-out years) in a move that reeked of desperation as Yankee brass tried to appease their fickle fans.

Strength: The infield, which since Mark Teixeira arrived has been arguably the best ever from an offensive standpoint (I would need to check with Tim Kurkjian on this; it’s easily the best I’ve seen in the last 15 years). As they do so often, the Yankees led the AL in runs scored in 2010, primarily behind their infield production, even with Jeter having one of the worst years of his career. No matter how bad their pitching appears it will be this year, the Yankees will always be in games with their ability to hit. On days when Sabathia isn’t pitching, I expect to see lots of 8-6, 10-7 type of games from the Yankees. The real gem in the infield bunch is Robinson Cano, a guy who last year finally put together a well-rounded year. In past years, Cano wouldn’t heat up until July. But last year, he hit all year. In route to posting a 6.2 WAR, Cano hit .318 with a .914 OPS, 29 HRs, and 41 doubles while playing 160 games, important since Alex Rodriguez missed significant time to begin the season. Cano will want to clean up grounding into double plays, though; last year he bounced into 19, tied for 21^st most in MLB, too many for a guy with presumably good speed and patience. Nevertheless, Cano proved able to carry a lineup under the bright New York lights. He is on the preseason short list for MVP candidates.

The left side of the infield features well-known Hall of Famers Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, while Mark Teixeira mans first with arguably the best first base glove in the game. The rest of the infield isn’t as defensively adept as Tex (Jeter criminally won a Gold Glove last year, a victory that threatened the legitimacy of the award; I’m not kidding, at this stage of his career he’s pretty bad), but their offense makes up for it. In a “down year” for A-Rod, he still hit .270 with 30 HRs, but still led the AL in the unquantifiable PTFOGIOP (Putting The Fear Of God Into Opposing Pitchers) stat. Expect him to bounce back in a big way. Same goes for Teixera, who hit 33 HRs but struggled with a .256 batting average. The big question for the Yankees, other than the obvious pitching issues, is Jeter and his…

Weakness: Age. The Yankees are old. I expect Jeter to bounce back from his horrendous 2010; he’s too prideful, too talented, and last year was possibly distracted by the controversy surrounding his impending free agency. But he’s also 36, and will be 39 by the time his newly minted contract ends. He’s obviously overpaid at $51 million for 3 years, but the Yankees were screwed to sign him to keep the fans happy; it was a bad baseball move, but the fans would have been pissed if they let a living legend walk out and end his career with the Angels or (gasp!) Red Sox. In addition to Jeter, there’s A-Roid (typo intended and 35 years old), Rivera (41? And still dominating? Holy crap), Jorge Posada (39), Burnett (34), and even Teixera and Sabathia are approaching the latter portion of their careers and both have quite a bit playoff mileage (both will turn 31 this season). My point is that, even if these guys are producing now, it’s only a matter of time before these guys display significant slippage. Not only will numbers slide, but also the ability to recover from injuries as quickly as when they were 25. The Yankees can win the World Series the next couple years. Beyond that, I have my doubts they will be able to compete for a playoff spot.

Final Analysis: The offense will carry them to the playoffs, where they will be bounced out early due to a dearth of quality starters behind Sabathia and the immortal Ivan Nova (my preseason Cy Young pick…just kidding). Expect GM Brian Cashman to be in the Fausto Carmona running near the trade deadline. If they pick him up, or another above-average starter, the Yankees could make a deeper run.

Tampa Bay Rays

2010: 96-66, 1^st place, lost to Texas in ALDS

Overview: If Bob Dylan was a baseball fan (which he might be when he’s not busy being overrated) he would probably root for the Rays because in 2011, the times are certainly a-changin’ (thank you, I’ll be here all week). Plagued with Smallmarket-itis, the Rays saw the departures of franchise cornerstones Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza, Rafael Soriano, and Grant Balfour, all key players in the Rays’ rise from irrelevance to World Series contenders the last 3 years. Hoping to take advantage of David Price’s immense potential before he eventually leaves for a larger market, the Rays brought in Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, two guys well-acquianted with the AL East who the Rays hope can jump in a time machine and travel back to 2006. Third basemen Evan Longoria is a legitimate MVP threat provided he can stay healthy, but the Rays lineup is a little thin elsewhere. One reason is the disappearance of B.J. Upton. After having a solid 2008 and tearing it up in the postseason, Upton has regressed the last couple seasons. Last year, he hit only .237 with a .322 OBP and 164 strikeouts. He did steal 42 bases, but that seems to be the only thing Upton truly excels at now. Despite gifts other players would kill for, Upton is dangerously close to hitting himself out of a job.

Strength: More of a potential for strength than an actual strength, that being the starting rotation. Led by phenom and future Cy Young winner David Price (5.3 WAR), the Rays possess a collection of young starters that could rival any rotation if they live up to potential. And there have been flashes for all these guys, so it’s not out of the question. Wade Davis posted a solid 4.07 ERA in his rookie season. Despite struggling last season (5.18 ERA 246 hits, 34 HRs), former ace James Shields is only 29 and in 2008 was one of the game’s best young pitchers. It’s hard to imagine that the Rays would have two promising young aces in Scott Kazmir and Shields that both fall off a cliff before age 30 after showing such promise. I expect Shield to improve, if not to 2008 standards, then at least back to respectability. The real wild card is Jeremy Hellickson, who is considered by many to be the Rookie of the Year favorite. Hellickson possesses a solid fastball, a plus curveball and a plus changeup. In 36.1 innings with the rays last season, Hellickson struck out 33 batters. He is still raw, but he gives the Rays hope that one day Hellickson and Price could form a devastating 1-2 punch. Until they sign with Red Sox or Yankees, anyway. (And yes, it doesn’t really make sense I labeled the Rays rotation as a strength and the Red Sox rotation as a weakness; but look, I’m tired, I want to get this done, and my girlfriend may leave me if I don’t get baseball out of my head sometime in the next 6 hours, so give me a break)

Weakness: With so many players leaving, the offense has obvious holes. But now, the Rays’ defense, once a remarkable strength, appears to be a weakness. I’m not an expert in evaluating defensive statistics (except the archaic “errors” and “fielding percentage” stats), but it doesn’t take a sabermetrician to know the Ray’s have slipped in the field. Losing speedster Crawford will do that, especially when he is being replaced in LF by 37 year-old Johnny Damon, a guy who can longer field decently and a guy who has never possessed an arm, often with comedic results (remember when Manny Ramirez cut off Damon’s throw to the cut off man? High comedy). Defensive whiz at SS Jason Barlett will also be missed, as will Carlos Pena’s reliable glove at first. And, for the sake of fun, let’s all root for a Ben Zobrist injury. Zobrist, the super utility man, is the projected right fielder. If he gets hurt, maybe that opens a spot for Manny Ramirez AND Damon to both flank Upton in the outfield. One week of that should provide enough material for blooper DVDs for the next 20 years.

Final Analysis: Many projections I’ve read have the Rays competing with the Red Sox for the division title or winning the Wild Card. I just don’t see it. The rotation has the potential to be stacked, but losing so many guys in the bullpen and in the lineup will translate to a significant drop-off in wins. I see them finishing around .500, which is still an admirable feat for a franchise undergoing so many alterations.

Toronto Blue Jays

2010: 85-77, 4^th place

Overview: Poor Toronto. If they were in any other division last year, it’s hard to envision them missing the playoffs. Playing in the vaunted AL East can be brutal for some clubs, but last year the Jays performed admirably in baseball’s toughest division, posting a 39-33 record vs division rivals. That may not sound that impressive, but it was the 2^nd best AL East intradivision record, behind only Tampa Bay; that feat is even more impressive when you consider the Yankees and Red Sox didn’t have to play themselves (that made sense in my head).

Toronto also had maybe the best offseason ever for a team that didn’t acquire an impact player. That’s because they unloaded Vernon Wells and his absurd contract ($86 million left) on the Angels (one comment I read on a message board said Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos used a Jedi mind trick on Angels’ GM Tony Reagins; that or Reagins just has a soft spot for chicken pitas and feta cheese). Once thought to be the most untradeable contract in the game, the Jays now have room to maneuver and make roster changes via free agency without the weight of Wells’ enormous contract weighing them down. The Jays won’t likely compete for a division title this year, but the future is at least looking brighter with an array of talented hitters, pitchers, and some financial flexibility.

Strength: Their power. Toronto smacked a ML leading 257 HRs (46 clear of 2^nd place Boston), which in turn led to a ML leading .454 slugging percentage. They were also 2^nd in baseball in doubles. Even with all the bombs, Toronto still only finished 6^th in the AL in runs scored because their OBP was a weak .312, third worst in the AL. If they are to be taken seriously, that number needs to improve (especially for a team that helped pioneer sabermetrics and Moneyball when J.P. Ricciardi was GM). But even if those numbers don’t improve, the Jays will still compete on a nightly basis thanks to their ability to go yard. Last year the Jays had 7 guys with at least 20 home runs. 7! SEVEN!!! That’s tied with 4 other teams (including the 2000 Blue Jays) for most all time; the 2009 Yankees were the most recent team to accomplish the feat. Toronto’s stadium, Rogers Centre, is renowned as being a hitter’s haven. That may be the case, but the 2010 Blue Jays’ power numbers were still impressive.

Leading the home run barrage was Jose Bautista (5.6 WAR), who led all baseball with a surprising 54 home runs. I say surprising because in his previous 5 full-ish seasons, he averaged only 14.2 home runs. This led to many people pondering foul play (ie, steroid use), as they cited how light hitting Oriole Brady Anderson hit 50 HRs in 1996 and never hit more than 21 any other season. This is a fair accusation given we are just exiting the Steroid Era. It will be interesting to see how Bautista responds to upgraded scouting reports, increased pressure, and a new contract extension. It might be unfair, but his credibility depends on it. I expect him to have a good season, but nothing like last year. Other Blue Jays can expect to cool off from 2010 HR paces, but the Jays should still have more than enough power to compete every night and create nightmares for pitchers visiting Toronto. I also liked the acquisition of Oakland A’s speedster Rajai Davis. His insertion into the top of the lineup should make the Jays offense more dynamic, giving them the ability to steal bases and get infield singles.

Weakness: The Juan Rivera’s corpse inhabiting left field.

Weakness, part 2: The rotation after Ricky Romero. Romero, age 25 last season, threw 210 innings and emerged as a legitimate front-line starter, posting a 3.73 ERA. At times, he was even more dominant; this year he could become one of baseball’s most underrated starters. Behind Romero, the Jays are projected to use starters Brett Cecil, Jesse Litsch, and Kyle Drabek. Drabek, of course, was one of the key pieces in the Roy Halladay to Philly trade. The jury is still out on Drabek, but in 3 starts last year, he underwhelmed: 17 innings and 9 earned runs. Last year, Cecil and Litsch posted a 4.22 and 5.79 ERA, respectively. Luckily for Toronto, the aforementioned 4 starting pitchers are all 26 or under, including Romero. It’s possible Toronto ends up with a perennially dominant staff. But for now, they will have to settle for mediocre and hope the offense wins them a ton of games.

Final Analysis: I like the Jays, but I don’t like them enough to project them to repeat their 85 win performance from last season. I just can’t buy into the offense hitting as many homers this year as they did last year (the departures of Lyle Overbay and Wells is already a loss of 51 home runs), Jose Bautista in particular. Bautista may hit in the 35-40 range, but not 50. The Blue Jays will likely compete with Tampa Bay for third, and finish a shade under .500.

Baltimore Orioles

2010: 66-96, 5^th place

Overview: To reiterate what I said in the division preview, the Orioles showed a pulse after Buck Showalter took over as manager, and it was needed. Baltimore, a once proud franchise, has had 13 consecutive losing seasons, behind only the Pirates (18 consecutive) for active streaks. The Orioles were active this offseason, hoping to bring more interest to their club. The Orioles didn’t make any major, Earth-shattering moves, but they did bring in some name players, albeit name players whose best years are behind them. The acquisitions of Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, and Mark Reynolds made headlines more for their name power than for any actual talent they have left in the tank. Reynolds can hit 35 home runs, but he’s also a lock to strike out 200 times (and he hit an ugly .198 last year; that’s barely clear of Jeff Mathis’ .195). Lee’s production has gradually declined since 2005 due to age and injuries. Guerrero had a nice bounce-back 2010 in Texas after an injury-riddled 2009 with the Angels, but at 36 one has to wonder how much left he has, especially considering how poorly he hit after the All Star Break last year (.267 batting average, .398 slugging, if you also count the postseason, and only 9 home runs before the playoffs began). The Orioles should certainly be more entertaining to watch and could creep near .500, but since they are relying heavily on a bunch of elder statesmen, their offense will have trouble developing any consistency.

Strength: Young talent, I think. With everyday players Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Brian Matusz, the Orioles have a nice nucleus. Markakis is a double machine, with at least 43 doubles every year since 2007; he is also fairly patient, with a career .368 OBP. Adam Jones brings Gold Glove caliber defense to CF; he was part of the deal that sent Erik Bedard to Seattle. Catcher Matt Wieters, once considered the best prospect in baseball, has not fully developed into the player Baltimore thought he would be (.249 batting average in 2010). Seeing Buster Posey’s rapid success in San Francisco can’t help. But Wieters is still young and the door is not shut on him becoming a solid all-around player. Southpaw Matusz posted a reasonable 4.30 ERA and an impressive 7.3 K/9. Baltimore likely won’t make the playoffs soon, but it’s reasonable to expect them be near .500 and maybe break through with a winning season in the next several years.

Weakness: Being the last team I’m writing about on this post. With apologies to Avon Barksdale, Detective Jimmy McNulty, and even Bubbles, Baltimore is not getting the kind of love from me it probably deserves; but I’m kind of over this post at this point. If you want a real weakness, then it’s that they play in the AL East and may not make the playoffs in your lifetime if you were born after 1997.

Final Analysis: Anything above last place would be welcomed in Baltimore. Buck Showalter has a history of turning clubs into contenders (Yankees, Diamondbacks). Can he do the unthinkable and accomplish that same feat in Baltimore? It’s doubtful, but then again expectations aren’t that high so if the Orioles finish .500 Showalter could become mayor (with apologies to Tommy Carcetti; if you didn’t get any of my name references in the last two paragraphs, go watch The Wire. Like right now).

***

If you made it this far, you deserve a medal. You don’t understand how much I appreciate you reading this whole thing. And if you didn’t read the whole thing, then you suck (they didn’t make it this far, they won’t know I said that).

Enjoy the baseball season. And be sure to cherish it even more this year since after it’s done, we are going to be without professional sports until baseball starts back up next April. And no, the NHL doesn’t count.

Method to the Madness

I like to think I’m pretty knowledgeable about sports. It’s really the only thing going for me that I can claim “expert” status. No, it’s not calculus or Asian literature, but it is something. I usually always know more about sports than whoever I’m talking to.

Which is why, every March, I feel betrayed by my own knowledge. The NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament, aka the greatest sporting event on the planet, is held every March. Part of the event’s charm is its utter unpredictability. However, the unpredictability is also quite maddening.

As is custom, millions of Americans fill out brackets predicting how the tournament will play it. Everyone, and I mean everyone, plays, even my girlfriend, who beat me last year because she picked Duke (the eventual winner) to win the national championship and I picked Kansas, the best team in the field. Know why she picked Duke? Because she likes the noise their crowd makes when one of their players makes a free throw. That’s it.

But in March, knowledge is a hindrance that leads to over-thinking and eventually looking stupid for making Stab In The Dark picks. So I decided to fill out my bracket with the remaining teams a little differently to see how I do. I’m going to pick the remaining games based on if each school’s mascot got in a fight, who would win?

I should also mention that I’m stealing this idea from my friend Reggie, who began this venture but said he had to stop because it hurt his brain. After all, how does one pick between the Syracuse Orange (a color) and the Indiana State Sycamores (a tree). He elected to try a different route . Let’s see if I can pick up where he left off.

Anyway, here are my picks for the remainder of the NCAA tournament. Winners are in bold.

East Region

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Kentucky Wildcats

Ohio St has a truly distinctive mascot, given that a buckeye is the state tree of Ohio. Meanwhile, Kentucky also has a unique name since I don’t think any other major school’s mascot is the Wildcats. I can see why Reggie’s brain was sore. I’m one game in, and I need to decide between a tree and a wildcat (by the way, a wildcat basically looks like a domesticated house cat; the more you know). I elected to advance the buckeye though because cats get stuck in trees. And also because I hate cats.

Marquette Golden Eagles vs North Carolina Tar Heels

Marquette gets the nod primarily because Tar Heel is a stupid mascot. The exact origin of the mascot is unknown, but one explanation I found came from the Civil War. According to reliable and college student favorite Wikipedia, North Carolina was an important Confederate state and troops “stuck to their ranks like they had tar on their heels.” I’m still not sure that makes sense. But what else do you expect from a state that loves NASCAR.

Ohio St. vs Marquette

The way I see it, an eagle is master of the tree. Yeah, the tree is bigger, but it can’t really do much except sit there. An eagle, on the other hand, has the ability to soar above the trees. Plus, choosing the tree would be like if you chose your house to beat you. Your house may be bigger, but you are master of your domain, to paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld. Unless you live in The Amityville Horror or that one house that decapitates Owen Wilson. Either way, Marquette advances to the Final Four.

West Region

Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats

A bit of an upset here. I presume that a blue devil is slightly less menacing than a red one (I don’t care that the blue part of the flame is hotter than the orange part; a blue devil is a softer color and thereby less likely to possess you). Meanwhile, Arizona has a unique name since I don’t think any other major school’s mascot is the Wildcats. And if a cat and a blue devil are battling, I think I give the advantage to the cat because, who are we kidding, cats are the spawns of Satan anyway.

Connecticut Huskies vs San Diego State Aztecs

On a quick side note, how did UCONN ever become good at basketball? For that matter, how did places like Kentucky and Kansas and Tucson develop powerhouse programs years ago? If I was an uber-athletic kid, the last place that sounds like a fun college experience is Lawrence, Kansas. I blame it on Kansas’ séance-like Rock Chalk Jayhawk chant. I guess if I lived in Kansas I too would join a cult committed to recruiting basketball players, if for nothing else than to fight the boredom of tornado offseason.

Back to the picks. I would like to pick a draw because I imagine the Aztecs thought they were kindred spirits with dogs. Or something (like I said, I only claim expert status in sports; Mesoamerican culture definitely doesn’t fall in that category). But since I have to pick, I take the Aztecs because they built some cool pyramids and inspired a ride at Knott’s Berry Farm while huskies are wimps that attack children. Now, if UCONN’s mascot was the Connecticut Cortes’ or the Connecticut Conquistadors, then we would have a different story.

Arizona vs San Diego St.

The Aztecs were innately destined to fall. Why not to the Devil Cats? Arizona moves on to the Final Four.

Southwest Region

Kansas Jayhawks vs Richmond Spiders

Going into this pick, I was set on picking Kansas. My logic was simple: a jayhawk, a bird, eats spiders. However, after looking up “jayhawk,” I discovered on Kansas University’s website that a jayhawk doesn’t exist. In fact, it’s a combination between a blue jay and a sparrow hawk, the sentiment being that blue jays are annoying and steal from other nests and sparrow hawks are stealthy, so a jayhawk is the best of both worlds. Too bad for KU students, the jayhawk isn’t able to switch nests to a desirable location like Los Angeles or Austin. Anyway, since it appears Dr. Moreau founded Kansas and their mascot, they are disqualified from the competition. No fairy tale characters are advancing in my bracket (though I must commend the state of Kansas for originality; Kansas State University’s mascot is the Wildcats, which is unique because I don’t think any other major school’s mascot is the Wildcats).

Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs Florida State Seminoles

Not that a ram isn’t intimidating in its own right. Have you seen those things on Animal Planet? They run into each other and shake it off like they got out of bed too fast. But the Seminoles get the nod here because their mascot rides a horse, donned in war paint, and throws a flaming spear. To him, a ram is nothing more than dinner.

VCU tangent time. If you are unaware, VCU was controversially selected to the tournament in lieu of more deserving schools, such as Virginia Tech and Colorado. There was really no reason for the selection committee to choose VCU over those other two schools, let alone a bunch of other schools (like Harvard) that it leapfrogged. All assumed criteria for choosing teams (such as wins vs top 50 teams, RPI, strength of schedule) were thrown out the window when VCU was selected.

Now that VCU has crushed every opponent they have thus far played in the tournament, there is this growing outlook that they somehow proved they belong or that the selection committee got it right after all. This is wildly stupid and misses the initial point, that being VCU didn’t deserve to be in the tournament in the first place. Sure, they could beat anyone, but that doesn’t mean that should have a chance to beat anyone.

Let’s think about this in baseball terms. Hypothetically, this season MLB decides they want to choose playoff teams with a selection committee. So the four best teams, in order, in the American League are Boston, Minnesota, LA Angels (I can dream), and the Yankees. But let’s say the committee inexplicably chooses Kansas City for the last playoff slot over the Yankees, even though the Yankees were statistically better in every facet the committee may examine, such as overall record, road record, total runs scored, etc. That means the committee’s lone reason for choosing the Royals was with the enigmatic “eye test,” meaning it looks like Kansas City deserved to be in ahead of the Yankees on the premise they could beat anybody. And could Kansas City beat Boston in a best-of-5 series? Absolutely. The reason sports, particularly baseball, are great is because any team can win on any given day. That’s fine, but Kansas City proved nothing over the course of the season to suggest they were a better team than the Yankees.

Though VCU has proven to be a worthy opponent, they didn’t prove themselves worthy in the regular season of making the tournament ahead of Virginia Tech. And don’t get me wrong, I don’t feel bad at all for VA Tech or Colorado; they put themselves in their position because they lost too many games. That’s their bad. But VCU also lost games, and put themselves in more of a bind than the other two teams. Luckily for them, they appeared more alluring to the selection committee.

Richmond vs Florida St

Seminoles squish the spiders and advance to Houston.

Southeast Region

Butler Bulldogs vs Wisconsin Badgers

Being a city boy, I admittedly have never seen a badger nor am really sure what they are (I do know they like to dance and have an infatuation with mushrooms though (nobody got that reference)). But by all accounts they are gnarly little creatures. Conversely, bulldogs are lazy and really only useful if you want to show your buddies that your dog can skateboard. Rob Dyrdek might disagree with me, but the Badgers advance.

BYU Cougars vs Florida Gators

This matchup depends entirely on who has home field advantage. In the water, an alligator is lethal. In a mountainous setting, I don’t see how a gator maneuvers well enough without falling to its doom. Also, these cougars have the advantage of never being intoxicated (ask Brandon Davies for a refresher course on the Cougar Honor Code). Plus, since Florida has knocked out my beloved UCLA Bruins (bruin=fictional bear) 3 times in 6 years, I’m advancing BYU out of spite.

BYU vs Wisconsin

Unless the badger employed a poisonous SNAAAAKKEEEEE (still, nobody got that reference, so I’ll help you out) to assist in taking out the cougar, the cougar would eat the badger, wouldn’t it? BYU moves on.

Final Four

Arizona vs Marquette

In the classic Bird vs Cat battle, Marquette wins for being an eagle that could pick up a cat and a) drop it, or b) feed it to its young. I mean, if Tweety Bird was able to outsmart Sylvester, I’m confident in not just an eagle, but a GOLDEN eagle, which I presume means it won something. Furthermore, I’m not having a Devil Cat win my bracket. That’s bad joojoo.

Florida St vs BYU

BYU’s only chance is if the Seminoles aren’t able to obtain the proper hunting license. Seminoles are humans after all. Being a personal member of the human race, I know our kind is quite adept at wiping out creatures. Goodbye cougars. Say hi to the dodo bird for me. You’re next American bison.

National Title

Marquette vs Florida St

Arrow or spear, it doesn’t matter. That bird is getting shot down. With that, Florida State University scores a remarkable national championship in basketball, something unheard of just a few shorts weeks ago. Tis the power of man over other creatures I suppose. When we want something, we take it.

Well, we’ve been able to master everything except for the NCAA tournament bracket. If my predictions don’t work, I’m going to have to figure out a new system for next year.

Can anyone recommend a good, sturdy dart board?