Bonus this year: since the post is shorter, I'm also including NL teams. I'm admittedly much more knowledgeable to the AL way of life, but I'll give it a go. In October, we can all look back at this and have a good chuckle.
American League
West:
1. Angels - Won 86 games last year, and the additions of Pujols, Chris Iannetta, and CJ Wilson alone could improve the team by 10 games. This is not to mention Kendrys Morales' return and a likely rebound year for Vernon Wells (he can't be worse). Best rotation in the AL. More on these guys later.
2. Rangers - All depends on Yu Darvish. Even though Mike Napoli is a likely regression candidate*, the offense is still a juggernaut. If Darvish is the ace everyone projects him to be, this already strong team won't have a weakness.
* As an Angels fan, I watched him plenty of times. He wasn't THAT good.
3. Mariners - Solid Felix Hernandez-Jesus Montero-Dustin Ackley core. If Justin Smoak achieves some of his potential, could be a competitive team in a couple years. Just not this year.
4. A's - Can you say fire sale? No Academy Awards for Moneyball and a possible 100-loss season. If you're a chair, you best stay away from Billy Beane this year. Though the A's did do a nice job selling off assets and turning a mediocre farm system into a very good one.
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| Dude, c'mon, he even makes visors look good. |
1. Tigers - Almost by default because I don't love this team. Prince is worth MAYBE two wins more than Victor Martinez. The infield defense could be historically bad with Miguel Cabrera's move to third. Regression candidates abound (Valverde, who sucks and proves why Saves are a meaningless stat; Fister; and yes, even reigning Cy Young/MVP Justin Verlander to an extent). Yet, best team in a mediocre division.
2. Indians - Sleeper team with good groundball staff and promising young players. If Shin-Soo Choo rebounds and Carlos Santana continues to develop, could give the Tigers a race.
3. Royals- The youth movement continues. Eric Hosmer looks as good as advertised and Alex Gordon finally had a breakout season, but a rough spring for the kids. Young, promising catcher Salvador Perez will miss at least half the season with a torn meniscus and closer Joakim Soria is out for the year due to Tommy John surgery. Likely won't contend, but could be interesting. Weak starting pitching (the Luke Hochevar thing is still happening?) means they're probably a year or two away.
4. Twins - I expect Mauer to have a good season, but the pitching cupboard is bare. If Justin Morneau squints too hard in the sunlight, he'll probably get a concussion.
5. White Sox - Adam Dunn made Vernon Wells look good last season. Other than Paul Konerko, a dreadful offense and a team with no direction. Oh and GM Ken Williams, your son Kyle can still eat shit.
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| Kyle Williams, still not forgiven |
1. Yankees - Addressed their biggest weakness, starting pitching, in the span of a couple hours on January 13 by signing Hiroki Kuroda and acquiring Micheal Pineda from Seattle. No real weaknesses on this team unless Death decides it's Jeter's and Rivera's time .
2. Rays - Embarrassing amount of pitching riches. Easily go 7 deep in MLB ready guys. Carlos Pena's return will help in the field and bring some power to an often weak lineup. A full year of Desmond Jennings plus a rebound for Evan Longoria (who was absolutely murdered by BABIP last season) means the offense should be better at least. The model franchise for small markets.
3. Red Sox - Lost in the chicken and beer saga is the fact this team's pitching isn't that good. Rotation falls off the cliff after Lester, Beckett, Bucholz (unless you like Daniel Bard...I don't), and the bullpen will sorely miss Papelbon. Despite the dearth of pitching and not really having a shortstop, will contend all season because they have the best 1-6 hitters in baseball.
4. Blue Jays - Poor Toronto. Could be a playoff team in the NL. Solid pieces everywhere but will likely have to settle for being the 7th best team in the AL.
5. Orioles - Just...no.
Playoffs:
Wild Card: Rangers (95 wins) over Rays (93)
ALDS: Angels (97) over Rangers...shutter; Yankees (95) over Tigers (91)
ALCS: Angels over Yankees in 7 epic games that make me want to punch a baby due to heightened stress levels.
Awards:
MVP: Longoria, Pujols, Cabrera
Cy Young: Wilson, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez
Rookie of the Year: Montero, Matt Moore, Mike Trout (crossing fingers), who I would consider leaving my fiancee for...ok not really...maybe
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| "Put me in coach" |
West:
1. Diamondbacks - Added Trevor Cahill to an already pretty good staff. Justin Upton made the jump to superstardom last season and looks poised to improve upon the potential his brother BJ never quite could. A Trevor Bauer call up (UCLA product!) and a Stephen Drew return from injury down the line could make this team really dangerous. The Jason Kubel signing was silly though; he's awful in LF and will take time away from Gerardo Parra, a defensive whiz that hit enough last year to warrant a full time gig this season.
2. Giants - I mean...their pitching alone gets them to 81 wins. Madison Bumgarner may be their best pitcher, and he's slotted as their #3 starter. Ridiculous bullpen depth with Brian Wilson, Brian Wilson's commercial iterations, and Sergio Romo. Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez return from injuries, which will be a big help to this anemic offense. If Pablo Sandoval spent the offsesason working on hitting instead of entering Mojos Eating Contests at Shakey's, the offense could be decent. And hey Bruce Bochy: stop effing with with Bradon Belt; sit Huff and give Belt the starts.
3. Padres - ESPN's prospect guru Keith Law ranked San Diego's farm system as the best in baseball, so they aren't far away from October baseball. But for now, they could actually be pretty decent. Cameron Maybin could be a budding star in CF, and Cory Luebke could be a budding star on the mound. The Pads always have a good bullpen; if new addition Yonder Alonso can bring his prodigious power to Petco Park, maybe the Padres compete through August.
4. Dodgers - Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Andre Ethier, and a whole bunch of nothing**. Oh and Magic Johnson, so yay for that. The pieces are there for a contender, but the farm system is pretty bare and the Dodgers seem content signing aging veterans to play key roles (i.e. Mark Ellis, Juan Rivera). It's a borderline miracle the team finished above .500 last season, but that's a testament to how excellent Cy winner Kershaw and shoulda-been-MVP Kemp were. Kemp will be interesting to watch this year. Does he build on last year's performance or does he regress back to his 2010 form? If the former, he's headed for the Hall of Fame.
** Sorry, but James Loney counts as nothing. On the surface he is a serviceable player, but the Dodgers were undoubtedly expecting more than about 12 HRs a year and a career 108 OPS+ from their "First Basemen of the Future."
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| Magic Johnson, baseball mind |
Central:
1. Reds - Losing Ryan Madson for the year is a big blow, but this team benefits from The Great Migration, perhaps better known as Fielder and Pujols leaving for the AL. Votto is maybe the best bat left in the NL, and the Reds are still waiting on past promise that Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs have shown. The rotation is improved with Matt Latos' acquisition.
2. Cardinals - The defending champs lost an icon this past offseason, but the narrative has been they could be even better in 2012. I'm not buying it. Sure Wainwright is back and the pitching as a whole is very good (assuming Chris Carpenter comes back healthy), but Carlos Beltran is a poor Pujols substitute, primarily due to injury risk. Sure, the Cardinals could be very good IF World Series heroes David Freese and Lance Berkman rake and IF Wainwright is the same pitcher and IF Pujols' void won't be too large. Good team, too many ifs.
3. Brewers - Solid club even without Prince. Braun is a stud, though you'll have to factor in PED regression (just kidding...sort of) and the rotation is very deep with Greinke, Gallardo and Shaun Marcum (who they traded Brett Lawrie for!). Aramis Ramirez will try to do his best Prince Fielder impression at third base, bad defense and all. Who knows, maybe they contend for a Wild Card.
4. Pirates - Darlings and surprise contenders about halfway through last season until they imploded. The winless season streak will end soon. Hope runs anew in the minors with 2011 #1 pick Garret Cole (UCLA product!) and in the majors, with rising star CF Andrew McCutchen signing a bargain extension. This team is close to contending once the kids grow up, but for now they can take solace at least in no longer being a laughingstock.
5. Cubs - Theo Epstein is in town to run things, undoubtedly looking to inflate his ego with thoughts of sugarplums and ending curses in 2 cities dancing through his head. Epstein was sage not to sign Fielder, since the Cubs won't be good for a while anyway. The Cubbies merely hope this season Starlin Castro, Travis Wood, and Anthony Rizzo (who'll likely be in the minors) continue to develop, and that Alfonso Soriano and his albatross contract (3 more years, $54 million) are catastrophically injured in a bus accident. Yes...accident.
6. Astros*** - (see description for Orioles)
*** Like, I consider myself pretty knowledgeable about baseball. But I can't name 3 players on their team.
East:
1. Braves - Oodles of pitching depth on the big club and down on the farm. Atlanta is praying for a bounceback year for Dan Uggla (33 game hit streak notwithstanding) and for once uber-prospect Jason Heyward to recover from his abysmal 2011. I think both happen, which combined with their starting pitching and elite bullpen, get Atlanta to October in Chipper Jones' swan song.
2. Phillies - I sooooo wanted to drop them down to 3rd place but just couldn't. The cliff is coming, and soon, but I'm too much of a coward. Ryan Howard's absence isn't a huge loss (he's the most overrated player in baseball) but it does hurt their depth. Utley is hurt again. Rollins is old. Victorino will regress from a career year. But the pitching is too damn good. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels will drag the Phillies' rotting carcass to the Wild Card. Barely.
3. Nationals - My favorite up and coming team. I love their rotation (Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Jackson), bullpen (Clippard, Storen), improving position players (Morse, Espinosa, Ramos), farm system potential (superstar prospect Bryce Harper and merely very good prospect Anthony Rendon, who they could flip to fill needs elsewhere since they already have Ryan Zimmerman locked up at third) not to mention an established veteran like Ryan Zimmerman. I still think they're a little green to do anything of substance if they make the playoffs, but with their core they could definitely sneak into a wild card and sooner rather than later they're going to contend for the World Series.
4. Marlins - Will score with anyone. Jose Reyes will set the proverbial table in front of Mike, er, Giancarlo Stanton, who has 40 HR potential, and Hanley Ramirez is too talented to repeat his 2011 performance. The pitching will be better with Mark Buerhle and Josh Johnson's return from injury. But I don't know, picking them to finish 3rd would have been boring even though they probably are right now better than the Nats. Whatever. But hey, they have a freakin' fish tank behind home plate! Whimsy!
5. Mets - When people talk about your team during the offseason and Bernie Madoff is mentioned more than any of your players, there's a good chance you're going to suck. But hey, they did flip 2 months of Carlos Beltran for pitching prospect Zach Wheeler last summer, so that's fun.
Playoffs:
Wild Card: Giants (90 wins) over Phillies (92)
NLDS: Giants over Reds (94); D'backs (93) over Braves (93)
NLCS: D'backs over Giants in 6
MVP: Upton, Votto, Halladay
Cy Young: Halladay, Bumgarner, Kershaw
Rookie: Bauer, Bauer, Bauer****
**** I don't know a lot about NL prospects. Sorry.
World Series: Angels over D'backs in 6
Partly because I'm a homer, but mainly because I'm betting Kendrys Morales returns to something resembling his 2009 form. If he does, the Angels don't really have a weakness. Elite defense, plus power, plus speed, elite starting pitching. The biggest weakness everyone points to is the bullpen. Jordan Walden's struggles as closer last season were overstated a bit. Yes he struggled in the superficial Saves stat, but overall he outperformed Neftali Feliz in stats that matter (like FIP, K/9, BB/9), and you didn't hear anybody crap on Feliz. Plus, if GM Jerry Dipoto needs to make a trade for a reliever midseason, the Angels have great trade chips like Mark Trumbo, Alberto Callaspo, and if he really wants to go balls out, powerful SS prospect Jean Segura. Additionally, they added low-risk high-reward bullpen guys like Latroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen. I'm usually a pessimist when it comes to my teams, but something tells me this Angels team is going to be really special.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the season!
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| Another World Series title and Mike Scioscia could end up in Cooperstown |
