Once again, I went 3-1 in my picks last weekend, thwarted from an undefeated weekend by the last game. Not that I’m complaining, because with the Giants victory the 49ers* get to avoid the Packers and have a home game for the right to lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Beating the Giants won’t be easy, but it’s still preferable to the alternative.
*Who picked the 49ers last weekend? This guy.**
**Who also picked the Broncos to make a game of things against the Patriots? This guy, unfortunately.
This week I’m going to run through the picks pretty quick. By now, I’ve written about the strengths and weaknesses of the four remaining teams and repeating myself is boring for all involved parties.
Some key questions this week: if Peyton Manning is retiring from football, is Rob Lowe also retiring from statutory rape (20-year old references FTW)? Did Wikipedia plan their SOPA blackout in mid-January because they knew most college students would be on break and wouldn’t have any major papers to write? Why didn’t Mark Wahlberg prevent Martin Luther King’s assassination? Who castrated Ricky Gervais before the 2012 Golden Globes? Will American Idol please end?
Mark Wahlberg: American Hero
On to the picks.
Ravens at Patriots, sponsored by the mark of the beast on Tom Brady’s forehead.
The Ravens had no business winning their game against the Texans last week. They were dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Flacco looked unimpressive per usual. TJ Yates threw for 3 INTS with no touchdowns and the Texans still had a chance to tie the game at the end of the 4th quarter. If Matt Schaub or even, gulp, Matt “Hot Tub” Leinart had played, the Texans would be visiting Foxboro this weekend, not Baltimore.
Meanwhile, the Patriots eviscerated Tebow & Friends. The Ravens would have been hard pressed to stop the Patriots anyway, but that task is going to be more difficult this weekend if safety Ed Reed (who was hurt at the end of the Texans game) is hobbled. The Patriots will attack the middle of the field with their star tight ends. Provided Rob Gronkowski doesn’t contract a lethal form of syphilis this week, he and Aaron Hernandez will run wild. Linebacker Terrell Suggs will be, and should be, preoccupied pressuring Brady, leaving the decaying Ray Lewis to chase after New England’s speedy tight ends.
Unlike his companion, Gronkowski's profession frowns against shots to the face
The Ravens MUST pressure Brady all day to give themselves a chance. Preferably they would be able to do it with a 4 man rush, thus leaving more guys back for pass coverage. But the Ravens rush has sputtered a bit of late, and Brady doesn’t need that much time to throw anyway.
When the Ravens have the ball, they will struggle. The Patriots had the worst defense in the NFL this season and frankly I know little about the unit in terms of personnel. But the Ravens’ offense is unimaginative and ill-suited to try to confuse the Patriots defense. Here’s the Ravens 3 plays: hand the ball to Ray Rice, throw deep to Torrey Smith, throw in the middle of the field to Anquan Boldin. Last week, the 49ers executed a brilliant sweep with Alex Smith on 3rd & 7, a play that might have flipped the game in San Francisco’s favor. It’s the playoffs; ingenuity matters, and the Ravens lack it.
My pick: Tom Brady finally wakes up from his dream. It’s 1997, he’s Brian Griese’s backup at Michigan, and the Victoria’s Secret catalogue he keeps under his mattress* is the closest he will get to a super model.
* Again, it’s 1997. Brady probably hadn’t received his AOL CD-ROM yet.
My actual pick: 30-17, New England
Giants at 49ers, sponsored by Alex Smith > Aaron Rodgers. Ok, not really.
Both these teams pulled off tremendous upsets in the first round. Led by stout defenses, they knocked off the Saints and Packers, two of the three best offensive teams in football.
It may not seem overly impressive that the 49ers gave up 32 points to the Saints or gave up 462 yards to Brees. However, due to San Francisco’s dominant run defense, Brees had to throw the ball 63 times to accrue that many yards. And through 56 game minutes, the Niners had only allowed 17 points to the high-powered Saints; two touchdowns were primarily the fault of safety Donte Whitner, who allowed Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham to score their lengthy touchdowns through a combination of poor tackling and poor angles to the ball.
The Giants utilized their pass rush to bother Rodgers numerous times. True, the Giants were benefactors of a number of drops from Packers receivers, but with the way the Giants were scoring, it’s likely that if a few catches were converted the Giants would have won anyway. Their victory now makes the State Farm commercials look as antiquated as the Pepsi Max commercials featuring the New York Jets.
Pop quiz: what number is greater, the calories in Pepsi Max or playoff wins for the 2011 Jets?
The conditions this Sunday should favor the 49ers. Because I’m a loser, I’ve been keeping track of the weather conditions in San Francisco all week, hoping for rain. And luckily for the Niners, it’s been raining all week and it looks possible it will also rain on Sunday. The wet and muddy conditions benefit teams that run the ball and hinder teams that prefer throwing a lot. Hopefully, the Giants star receivers will not be able to get as much separation from the defensive backs on account of poor footing and hopefully the wet ball will be difficult for them to gather.
Me, Jim Harbaugh, and Alex Smith, all doing our best rain dance
The problem for Alex Smith and the Niners offense is that the Giants aren’t going to be stupid like the Saints, brining the house on blitzes and leaving Vernon Davis one-on-one. The Giants only need to rush 4 guys. Star cornerback Corey Webster will match up with WR Michael Crabtree who, even if he sucked last week (3 drops from what I remember), is San Fran’s* only above average wideout. If he’s neutralized, Davis will see multiple coverages all geared towards shutting him down. And if Smith can’t find open guys quickly, the Giants defensive line will eat him alive.
* “San Fran” is slightly more acceptable than “Hotlanta.” Slightly.
For the Giants, they only need a couple big plays from Eli and the receivers. The defense will do the rest. The 49ers dream season ends here. Harbaughs across the country mourn and aggressively shake hands while sitting shiva.
My pick: I’m trying not to jinx the 49ers by predicting victory.
My actual pick: 17-10, New York
My playoffs record: 6-2
Enjoy the games. Be back in a couple weeks for a Super Bowl preview.
Not to brag or anything (ok, to brag), I went 3-1 in my picks from the Wild Card round and, save the final scores, was pretty spot-on in my analysis of why the winning team would win*.
* Andre Johnson would give Yates a deep threat and open the field for Foster, Pacman got beat on the deep TD by Johnson, Bengals upset bid was overblown, Saints have good run game that Lions can’t stop, Lions would score but not nearly enough, Giants pass rush would bother Matt Ryan, Michael
Turner sucks.
But boy was I wrong about that Broncos game. Roethlisberger’s injury hurt Pittsburgh a lot, but the loss of Center Maurkice Pouncey insured the Broncos would get pressure all game. And remember when I said that Ryan Clark’s absence would be irrelevant? Well, on that final touchdown pass in OT, the Steelers could have really used a Safety to help out Ike Taylor.
I’m going to cut myself some slack though because I was picking against God. So without divine intervention, I really went 3-0 last week. Plus, did you see Roethlisberger’s hat in his postgame press conference? He looked like Don Draper's redneck offspring. After seeing his hat, I sure felt like a winner even if I picked incorrectly.
Now I know why he resorts to rape (allegedly)
Some key questions for the divisional round: Will Drew Brees ever throw an incomplete pass again? Does Aaron Rodgers do a Discount Double Check in the bedroom, and does BJ Raji watch? Does God let Satan (Bill Belichick) win this round? Are the 4 teams remaining in the NFC better than all of the AFC teams? Can Houston Texans fans locate Baltimore on a map? Are those Camry commercials featuring Kelly Clarkson, Chris Berman, James Lipton, and that other guy really just to show how spacious the Camry is**?
** I made this crack on Twitter a few days ago. You should stop reading this and follow me (@andrewkarcher).
Chris Berman and Kelly Clarkson take part in a staring contest to see who wins the last drumstick in the bucket
Now, on to the picks.
Saints at 49ers, sponsored by Dianne Feinstein kind of looking like Harvey Milk if you squint long enough
Except I doubt whoever thought of that line imagined an offense quite like the Saints.
I described New Orleans’ offensive potency last week, and they didn’t disappoint in their thrashing of the Lions; after being held to 10 points in the first half, they exploded for 35 points in the second half. During the game, I asked rhetorically “how do the Saints ever NOT score?”
Full disclosure: I’ve been a 49ers fan since they beat the Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX (if those Roman numerals represent something other than 29, I screwed up), when my malleable, adolescent brain liked the idea of rooting for a winning team that sported shiny gold helmets. Since LA hasn’t had an NFL team in almost 20 years, it kind of just stuck.
So I might be completely biased in my analysis of this game because I’m just excited that the 49ers are in the playoffs for the first time since cell phones had cameras: but I think the 49ers are going to win this game. And no, part of my thinking isn’t that Brees will accidentally OD on NyQuil the night prior to the game. Or that a 49ers mole will slip NyQuil into Brees’ Gatorade bottle. This is a non-NyQuil victory I’m predicting.
"It's ok Drew, go back to sleep. I'm sure Chase Daniel will be fine in your absence."
Part of it is a gut feeling. New Orleans is playing offense at an unsustainably high level, and EVERYONE is picking them. I can’t say I necessarily blame EVERYONE, but if there’s a safe bet for an upset this weekend, this game is it. Coach Jim Harbaugh is going to light a fire under his team’s ass all week with pep rallies and pom poms, decrying how his 13-3 team can be underdogs at home to a team that thinks defense is optional.
Part of it is based on actual football analysis. If the Saints are to lose, it would be to a team like the 49ers. To beat the Saints, you need to a) run the ball, and run it well, a lot, b) control the time of possession, c)force turnovers, d) avoid turning the ball over and e) pressure Brees. All 5 of those things are basically all the 49ers do, and they did them all to great success, i.e. a 13-3 record and essentially wrapping up a playoff berth before you carved your Thanksgiving turkey.
As far as Yards Per Carry, the 49ers are actually a middling bunch, averaging only 4.1. Like Michael Turner, Frank Gore isn’t the same RB he used to be; however, he is younger and a little more useful in passing downs. But what the 49ers lack in skill they make up for in persistence. Only 2 more teams (Houston and Denver) ran the ball more in the regular season. As I wrote last week, the Saints have a weak run defense that the Lions couldn’t really exploit. Well, the 49ers are more than happy to exploit it. If they run the ball, convert 3rd downs, and keep Brees off the field, they will have a great shot at victory.
If the 49ers have a joker card, it’s Alex Smith. The much maligned QB was taken #1 overall (Aaron Rodgers was selected 24th overall*) in the 2005 draft and has disappointed. How he still has a starting gig is a mystery.
* /slams face into keyboard
Patrick Willis after just learning Aaron Rodgers could have been his QB
Yet, with Harbaugh, Smith has become not-terrible (yes, that’s a compliment in this context). He’s not spectacular and the 49ers won’t beat anyone via their downfield passing game, but he only threw 5 INTs all year and made plays when he needed to. New Orleans loves to blitz; likewise the 49ers allowed the 6th highest sack rate, so Smith can expect to see a healthy dose knockdowns in the game. If he delivers the ball accurately amidst pressure, the 49ers will hold a major advantage, since the Saints defense is pretty weak.
When Brees has the ball, the 49ers can answer with a defense that tallied 42.0 sacks on the year, 7th best in football. The defense is also sending 3 players to the Pro Bowl (LB Patrick Willis, DT Justin Smith, CB Carlos Rogers), and that isn’t including rookie of the year contended Aldon Smith, who accrued 14.0 sacks and 2 forced fumbles on the year. In reality, this is where the game will be decided. Recalling last week, I wrote the Saints boast 3 offensive linemen who were selected for the Pro Bowl. If they give Brees ample time this game, the Niners don’t have a prayer because if San Francisco does have a defensive weakness, it’s that you can throw deep on them. The Saints know running the ball on San Francisco is a fruitless endeavor, and they will throw. And throw. And throw. The 49ers must pressure and sack Brees, and probably force an interception or two.
The 49ers also have a great kicker and punter, but nobody cares and I’ve already written way too much about this game and could probably write another 1000 words. It’s time to move on.
My pick: I say lots of bad words under my breath while watching.
My actual pick: 26-24, San Francisco. Hold me.
Broncos at Patriots, sponsored by the internet blowing up if Denver wins
The Broncos shouldn’t win this game. The Broncos won’t win this game. Tom Brady will throw for however many yards Tom Brady damn well feels like throwing for. All I really need to say is Patriots Good, Broncos Bad.
I wish I could take credit for this
Demariyus Thomas won’t have another Calvin Johnson Lite type game because Eric Decker is likely going to miss the game and New England won’t be as stupid as Pittsburgh when scheming their defense. The Pats will force the Broncos to run (and they will successfully to an extent) and force Tebow to complete short throws in the middle of the field (he’s better throwing it deep). The Broncos will get some points because the Patriots have the worst defense in the league, but they won’t be able to stop Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and the best offense in the league not named Green Bay or New Orleans.
But the Broncos are going to cover the spread and the Pats will sweat out a closer than expected victory. I have no idea why.
That’s all I got for ya. Just enjoy the ride.
My pick: In a possible sign that God is frustrated with Tebow, a frog drops from the sky. The frog then catches more passes than Chad Ochocinco.
My actual pick: 31-27, New England
Texans at Ravens, sponsored by Old Spice Commercials jumping the shark
Anyway, the Ravens are probably the most overrated team in the playoff field. I likened them to the Chargers several times this year in that they have bushels of talent but will lose games to inferior teams (Titans, Seahawks, Jaguars). My theory is that the Ravens are a team that feeds off “emotion” more so than other teams. If you watch a Ray Lewis pep talk before the game, you’ll know what I mean:
And now his dance:
This is great and all, but often they blow their emotional load and can’t recover the next week. This scenario played out 3 times this season. Two of their losses came the week following victories over the Steelers, their fiercest rival for the better part of the last decade. Another loss was a 12-7 defeat at the hands of the Jags on Monday Night Football, a week after crushing the Texans (who still had Schaub at that point and were about to make a run as one of the NFL’s best teams; then Schaub got hurt).
All 4 Ravens losses came on the road, where they are an ordinary team. But at home, which is where this weekend’s game will be played, they turn into Beast Mode and terrorize the opposition with a relentless pass rush (48.0 sacks, 3rd most in football) led by LB Terrell Suggs and DT Haloti Ngata*. The pass rush allowed the Ravens to give up the 4th fewest passing yards in the league. Other than the 49ers, the Ravens have the best remaining defense in the playoffs. This being the first home playoff game for Baltimore in some time, I expect this to be one of those games where they feed off the crowd and Ray Lewis hemorrhages after delivering an impassioned pregame speech. Pray for T.J. Yates and his rookie soul.
* The “G” is silent, which totally makes sense.
However, on offense, the Ravens are nothing spectacular. QB Joe Flacco would be considered a bust if playing for a team with a crap defense. Instead, he had the good fortune of being drafted by the Ravens, who often win in spite of Flacco**. This season, Flacco completed only 57.6% of his passes (26th out of 34 qualifying QBs; yes, Tebow is last), his Yards Per Attempt were only 6.66 (24th, and also a number that may lead to Tebow assassinating Flacco) and his TD/INT ratio was quintessential Flacco: a very mediocre 20/12.
** This isn’t to say Flacco always sucks. In fact, he has moments where he looks like an elite QB and shows the tools that made him a first round pick. The final TD drive in the second Steelers game, the one where he threw 2 TD passes to WR Torrey Smith (Smith dropped the first one) was a picturesque 2-minute drill.
The Ravens do however employ Ray Rice, who tallied over 2000 yards from scrimmage thanks to his elite pass catching skills to go along with 15 TDs. Rice also had the pleasure of running behind Fullback Vonta Leach, a terrific lead-blocker that blocked for Arian Foster last year in Houston and helped pave the way for his breakout season. As we saw last week the Texans have an elite defense of their own, one that shut down the Bengals RB combo of Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott. Now, those two are marginal players and Rice is a superstar, but the talent is there for the Texans to at least slow down Rice and make Flacco throw.
If Flacco is dropping back, the Texans will be able to get pressure and possibly lead Flacco to make a dumb mistake or two. The Ravens don’t possess elite receivers to bail Flacco out if he gets in trouble. The aforementioned Torrey Smith is a burner but an inconsistent rookie with stone hands, and Anquan Boldin is, at this point in his career, a possession receiver coming off recent knee surgery. Jonathan Joseph should have little trouble shutting down whoever his assignment is.
While writing this I started to talk myself into the idea off an upset. But then everything comes back to the Ravens being undefeated at home this season, against a rookie QB and a franchise that may experience a letdown after winning their first ever playoff game. For the Texans to win, Arian Foster needs to have the game of his life. Against the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL? Doesn’t seem likely.
My pick: 20-10, Houston
My actual pick: 20-10, Baltimore
Giants at Packers, sponsored by moron Packers fans that buy “stocks” for the “publicly owned” Packers. No really, read this.
I could almost copy/paste my analysis for 49ers-Saints into this section. If the Giants are to beat the Packers, they will need to accomplish similar things that the 49ers will need to accomplish this weekend.
Like last week, the Giants will need their elite pass rush to pressure All-World QB Aaron Rodgers. If the Giants can’t rush with their front 4, especially against an under-manned and under-talented Packers offensive line, they’re toast.
* A move that, in case you forget, reminds you that Aaron Rodgers is really really white.
A fanny pack AND a lame TD celebration? Yep, Aaron Rodgers is the whitest person ever
When the Giants have the ball, they would be well-advised to try to run as much as possible, similar to what the Niners will do this weekend. Ahmad Bradshaw appears to be healthy and weight-conscience Brandon Jacobs has been running well of late. The two combined for 155 yards on 28 carries last week against the normally stout Falcons run D. If the Giants run successfully this weekend in Green Bay, eat clock, and keep Rodgers off the field, their chances of victory increase exponentially.
As demonstrated last week in their Atlanta demolition, the Giants are a terrific passing team, even if Victor Cruz was quiet by his own lofty standards. Eli was efficient. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham combined for 3 TDs. It all seemed so effortless. The Packers defense shouldn’t pose too much problems for Eli, either. What Green Bay has in big names, it lacks in actual quality. Guys like Charles Woodson, BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams, Charlie Peprah, and Sam Shields are all still there, but for whatever reason this year they haven’t been able to stop anyone.
If there is one thing the Pack D excelled in, it was forcing turnovers. Their group intercepted the ball 31 times this year, 8 more than second place team New England. Now, these numbers are skewed a bit. Since the Packers kicked everyone’s ass, they forced teams to throw the ball more to try and catch up. More passes thrown = more opportunities for interceptions. With that said, 31 picks is a lot and is certainly the strength of the Packers defense.
If Eli can avoid throwing interceptions, he will cut off the life blood of the Packers and be well on his way to a monster game.
But the Packers are the champs, and the defense is largely the same as last year’s respectable Super Bowl winning unit. Look for them to make a couple plays that will decide the game.
Oh and the Giants? Yeah, they’re not stopping Rodgers. A pass rush is nice and they might get to Rodgers a few times. But Rodgers is crafty enough and good enough to exploit the terrible Giants secondary.
The game will be a shootout, but the Packers have more defensive weapons to pull out a victory.
My pick: The cameras will show at least one fan sans shirt in the stands. He’ll be drunk.
My actual pick: 35-28, Green Bay
My playoff record: 3-1
Enjoy the games and I'll be back next week with Title Game previews.
In my last post, I mentioned that my next post would be New Years-related. I lied, nobody cares about New Years anymore.
Back in November, I began a series in which I write about the myth of east coast sports fans being superior to west coast sports fans, under the premise it would be in 3 parts. I lied. I’m done with that, for a couple of reasons. First, I really liked part 1 and in hindsight feel any more elaboration would be redundant. Second, it stopped being timely like 6 weeks ago.
So my apologies for the flakiness. Even though this is a personal hobby and I don’t get paid, I still like to finish what I start.
But, the benefit is with 2012, I’m off to a fresh start and not tied down with past promises. With that said, I’m about to commit myself to a post for the next month.
In sifting through some past posts for this blog, I realized I have not written about the NFL at all. When I write about sports, it appears, I tend to stick to baseball because it’s my favorite and I’m probably the most knowledgeable about it. But I watch a ton of NFL as well.
This season was the first time I seriously played fantasy football, and if you ask anyone I played with, I was obsessed. Much of my days were consumed with trying to trade for players I didn’t own. Much of that is because I had a crappy, Pittsburgh Pirates-type draft. But much of that is also because I have a problem. As of the last 5-ish weeks of the season, I only had 1 guy on my roster that I drafted (Michael Turner, who is red for a reason that I will explain latter). And even though I wasted a first round pick on Michael Vick, I still managed to advance to my league’s championship, where I was promptly crushed.
Countless hours were spent ruminating trade scenarios, trying to figure out who I should pluck off the waiver wire because they could break out a few weeks down the line (Ben Tate FTW), fretting while watching the real-life games on Sunday, and praying to the football deities that Maurice Jones-Drew won’t be downgraded to Questionable. And I lost. It was all pointless. And yet, I’ll do it again next year.
The day I use a draft board for fantasy football is also the day I will be single
So why am I telling you this? Because with the playoffs starting, I’m looking forward to watching football like a normal person, with no pretend team implications. But with the aid of fantasy, I’m probably more knowledgeable about the NFL than I have been before.
To test my knowledge, I’m going to pick the playoff games through the Super Bowl. Also, if a player is highlighted in red, it’s because they screwed me over one way or another in fantasy and I want them
thrown into a fiery pit for eternity. With snakes. And Russell Brand.
On to the picks.
Bengals at Texans, sponsored by Ten Gallon Hats and Fast Food
* Or not, because they didn’t and made the playoffs anyway because Kansas City and San Diego also won. Or something. I propose rock-paper-scissors take the place of traditional tiebreakers. Screw strength of victory, let’s see some Roshambo (but not the one where you kick each other in the balls, thought it would be admittedly awesome to watch Phillip Rivers and Tim Tebow kick each other in the balls)!
The Bengals are led by rookie QB Andy Dalton, who looks destined to be a ginger Alex Smith**, and stud rookie WR AJ Green, who looks destined to leave Cincinnati when his rookie contract expires. In the backfield is the unremarkable Cedric Benson, who averaged only 3.9 yard per carry on the season. The defense has suffered since the loss of Cornerback Leon Hall to a season-ending Achilles injury in November. His replacement? None other than Adam “Pacman” Jones, whose one legitimate skill since being drafted is that he leads the NFL in Making It Rain (MIR). Other than that, he likes to get lost in coverage, and eat cherries, pretzels and sometimes ghosts, but only after they turn blue.
** Dalton’s nickname is the Red Rifle. I think that might also be a euphemism for an aroused male dog. The more you know.
Houston has been one of the more snakebitten teams this season. Star LB Mario Williams was lost for the season, RB Arian Foster missed substantial time at the start of the year, WR Andre Johnsoninjured both hamstrings and missed most of the year***, and QBs Matts Schaub and Leinart suffered season-ending injuries in consecutive games.
*** Because he’s a dick.
Oh, screw you
Still though, the defense is solid behind LB Brian “I’m Not the Type to Use Steroids, Only Except This Time I Was” Cushing and free agent acquisition CB Jonathan Joseph. The running game is good with Foster and Ben Tate, and it’s just a little too obvious that the Bengals are going to win this game. They took advantage of an easy schedule, and they face a Houston team that will play in front of a pumped up, Jack Daniels/jalapeno popper-fueled crowd that has been waiting for Houston’s first playoff game for 10 years.
The Texans may have a boatload of injury problems, but Johnson’s return, provided he is healthy, should spread the field for Foster, who runs behind a terrific run block scheme led by Offensive Tackle Eric Winston, and provide rookie QB T.J. Yates a much-needed downfield weapon. And even with the injuries, are the Bengals really better than the Texans at anything? The passing game is decent, but Joseph should help neutralize Green and the pass rush should bother the rookie Dalton.
My pick: I nod off at least 3 times during this field goal fest
My actual pick: 17-16, Houston
Steelers at Broncos, sponsored by King James
If you’re looking for an upset this weekend, keep looking. Yes we’ve all heard about the magic of Tebow and all the unicorns he creates and all the football games he wins because he’s “gritty” and “a leader.” But the fact of the matter is, if Marion Barber stays inbounds OR holds onto the ball in Week 14, the Broncos aren’t playing this weekend. The truth is, during the “magical” Broncos win streak, they A) didn’t play anybody good, and B) were kept in games by the Von Miller-led defense.
And then Tom Brady and the Patriots waltzed into Denver in Week 15, kicked little Timmy’s ass, and now the Broncos are spiraling because the defense stopped playing well. And since Tebow sucks*, there’s nothing really the Broncos can do about it.
* Like, he’s the worst QB I’ve ever seen. His one redeemable skill is that he can run, but even that backfires sometimes. He’s notorious for turning 5 yard loss sacks into larger sacks. Like this:
Then you have the Steelers, who in an injury-ravaged down year still won 12 games and are still probably one of the best 5 or 6 teams in the sport. They’ll be without leading tackler and Safety Ryan Clark because the Steelers would prefer he didn’t die in a game they won’t need him. They’ll also be without RB Rashard Mendenhall for the duration of the playoffs after suffering a knee injury in Week 17. This shouldn’t be a huge issue, though, as Mendenhall had an unspectacular season and Isaac Redman is a serviceable backup ** that simply lacks the big name cachet of Mendenhall. Ben Roethlisberger is still recovering from an ankle injury, but will still play.
The Steelers’ strength is their passing game, anyway. Young, speedy wideouts Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown should expose an overrated Champ Baily and a relatively weak Broncos secondary. Another geriatric defensive back, Safety Brian Dawkins, likely will not suit up for the game due to injury. Wallace and Brown are perfect compliments: Wallace, maybe the fastest WR in football, is the deep guy, opening things up underneath for Brown, who also has big play ability.
If Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil aren’t able to put pressure and, more importantly since he makes so many plays outside the pocket, sack Ben Roethlisberger, it’s going to be a long day for Tebow and the Miracles. Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LaBeau loves to blitz (and guys like James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are quite good at it; OLB LaMarr Woodley will also be back for Pittsburgh), making Tebow’s already weak passing skills an even greater liability. For the Broncos to win, RB Willis McGahee needs to have the game of his life. It ain’t happening.
The only reason I’m not picking a bigger blowout is because of Roethlisberger’s high ankle sprain and Denver’s ability to drain the clock when on offense.
My pick: 4 Steelers are smote
My actual pick: 24-6, Pittsburgh
Lions at Saints, sponsored by the cute narrative that a football team’s success helps rebuild a city after catastrophe
These two played in Week 13 in the Superdome, and the Saints won 31-17, although it didn’t feel that close. The problem for the Lions is that what they do well, the Saints do better. A lot better. And the weaknesses the Saints have can’t really be exploited by the Lions.
Thusly, the Saints gave up 5.0 YPC on the season; the Lions don’t really have a running game, finishing 29th in total yards on the ground. The one competent RB the Lions have, Kevin Smith, is so brittle that I wouldn’t be surprised if he was related to the Samuel L. Jackson character from Unbreakable.
So the Lions, led by QB Matthew Stafford and the best WR on the planet, Calvin Johnson, will need to throw the ball to keep up with the Saints. And throw. And throw.
The problem with that, of course, is that Drew Brees is the Saints QB, and he’s in the discussion for best QB of the past decade. He just threw for 5,476 yards on the season, nearly 400 yards clear of Dan Marino’s 27 year-old record. He also threw 46 TDs (with only 14 INT) and possesses a wide array of offensive weapons at his disposal, including breakout star Tight End Jimmy Graham (who broke the most receiving yards for a TE in NFL history record until Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski broke that record a mere hours later) and RB Darren Sproles, who broke the NFL record for most all-purpose yards (rushing + receiving + return yards). The Saints also employ an underrated running game with 4 capable backs (Sproles, Mark Ingram, Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas), and although they don’t run as
often as other teams, they still racked up 4.9 YPC on the season, good for 4th in the NFL.
So yeah, the Saints offense is pretty decent.
Meanwhile, the Lions strength is in their pass rush, led by Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril, and Kyle Vanden Bosch, who judging by the below picture looks like he has something inside of him that Tebow would try to exorcise. However, the Saints have one of the stronger offensive lines in the league. Three of their linemen will represent the NFC in the Pro Bowl (Tackle Jermon Bushrod * and Guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks). And even if the Pro Bowl is the bastard of All-Star Games, it’s still damn impressive to send 3 offensive linemen.
* Tee-hee
Drew Brees sees your un-intimidating contact lenses, and raises you 6 TD passes
Suh’s presence probably won’t be felt all that much anyway with the Saints strong protection**. And even with good players on Detroit’s defensive line, you can still run on them, to the tune of 5 yards per carry on the year.
** Also provided he doesn’t curb stomp Roger Goodell before the game.
I like Detroit to get their fair share of points. But I like New Orleans to get an even fairer share of the points pie. Also, expect Detroit to make a few dumbass penalties throughout the game. The group is woefully undisciplined under hot-head coach Jim Schwartz (8.0 penalties per game, third worst rate in the NFL), and if New Orleans goes up early and gets the crowd going, Detroit may just Unsportsmanlike Conduct their way out of the playoffs.
My pick: 512-21, New Orleans
My actual pick: 41-21, New Orleans
Falcons at Giants, sponsored by East Coast Bias
This game is the toughest for me to figure out. I really want to pick the Falcons so I at least would have picked one underdog this weekend, but I can’t bring myself to do it. Atlanta has enough offensive firepower to hang with the Giants behind QB Matt Ryan, resurgent TE Tony Gonzalez, and WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones, but I think that’s part of the problem.
The myth of the Falcons is that they have a good running game. But if you’ve ever watched Michael Turner, you know that isn’t totally true. Turner did finish 3rd in rushing, with a respectable 4.5 YPC, and scored 11 TDs. But I think he sucks. And maybe I’m just bitter because I owned him all season in fantasy and whenever I watched him, it seemed like he would get stuffed at the line of scrimmage 9 plays in a row, then break free for 15 yards (after writing this, I read somewhere that Turner was tackled behind the line of scrimmage more than any other RB; I just don’t remember where I read that). Turner’s long runs, I think, masked his decline. He’s 29, ancient for a RB, with a lot of mileage since being in Hotlanta.* He looks slow and can’t beat anyone to the outside anymore. If the Falcons are to beat the Giants, they will need a more balanced attack.
* I just realized white people shouldn’t be allowed to say “Hotlanta.” Scratch that, nobody should be allowed to say “Hotlanta.”
Because even if Atlanta scores points against a weak Giants secondary, it’s unlikely their mediocre defense will be able to contain Eli Manning and his talented trio of receivers (breakout star Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham).
Like I said, the Giants secondary is bad, but their pass rush is other worldly. Atlanta’s mediocre offensive line will need to contain Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and All-Pro Jason Pierre-Paul, QB menace and field goal blocker extraordinaire. If those guys can pressure Ryan and collect some knockdowns and sacks, the Giants should be able to squeak out a victory. Who knows, it’s the playoffs, maybe the game turns on a Umenyiora stripsack or something.
"One, Two, JPP's coming for you"
Here’s where Turner would have helped. Runs and play-action passes could have helped alleviate the pressure Ryan will face. But Turner isn’t good enough anymore, and I think the Falcons know it. The Falcons know to have a shot, they are going to have to throw 40 times this game because Turner won’t give them what they need. If Turner is on the field, that generally means Atlanta is running; he is worthless catching the ball and not great at pass protection. So the Giants can load the box and shut him down. If Jason Snelling or Jacquizz Rodgers are on the field? It’s all hands on deck for Atlanta, because the Giants are coming. And since their pass rush is so good, they rarely need to blitz, allowing more guys to cover the Atlanta pass catchers. If the running game isn’t working, I expect Atlanta to run some screen plays for the dynamic rookie Rodgers, to help shake off the pass rush.
The key to the game will be how Atlanta’s pass protection holds up. If they play up to snuff, I like Atlanta in a minor upset. If not, I like the Giants to make a few more defensive plays than Atlanta, which will propel them to victory and a Divisional Round date with Green Bay.
Basically, have fun while it lasts, New York.
My pick: That I won’t say “Hotlanta” ever again
My actual pick: 28-27, New York
Thanks for reading. Enjoy the games and I’ll be back next week.
