Bruno Mars II: Pete's Revenge

February 13, 2011 was my first post for this blog. Over the past year I’ve pondered if Charlie Sheen is actually a role model of sorts, made Diablo Cody my go-to punch line, listed all the irritating things you’re probably still doing on Facebook, came up with weeklong marathon ideas for cable networks (I’m still holding out hope for Anderson Cooper Pretending to be a Hardcore Journalist Week), impersonated a Yelp reviewer, and turned a fantasy football addiction into 4 NFL playoff posts.

But my favorite post is still the first one. Every time I hear “Grenade” now, I think about that post, often still coming up with better jokes I could have used. I’ve also wondered how Pete* has been this past year. Has he found the true love he yearns for? Has he met the girl of his dreams, one that will spend the necessary 3 hours each morning applying product to his hair?

* In case you didn’t read the first post or don’t remember, Pete is my pet name for Bruno Mars. Read the first few paragraphs of the initial post for clarification.

Alas, it seems that Pete is as crestfallen as ever. I like to think of his most recent hit, “It Will Rain,” as the sequel to “Grenade.” Apparently the girl in that song was impressed by his Navy SEAL-like ability to catch live artillery, and fell in love with Pete. But in “It Will Rain,” Pete cannot hide his emo tendencies because he seems to think that Anonymous Girl That Was Not Exploded By A Grenade wants to leave him.

You’re in luck Pete, because I’m here to help (again; by the way I wanted to post this on the actual anniversary date of my blog...oh well). Below is the music video for “It Will Rain,” in case you haven’t heard the song or just want to see some chick mow through an apple. There’s also like symbolism and shit (The clock ticks backwards?! What could it mean?!): 

As you can see in the video, the girl obviously digs him. She finds him more XBOX than Atari, if you will. Then inexplicably Pete walks around his ill-furnished apartment longing for his since-departed girlfriend. And Robert Pattinson shows up. Sure.

Some background: the song is currently #13 on Billboard’s Top 100 (it peaked at #3) and has been on the charts for 20 weeks. It was featured during the Breaking Dawn credits.**

** I mean, that’s what I heard. From somewhere. Might have been The New Yorker. Yeah, that’s it.

 “If you ever leave me, baby”

Oh God, here it comes.

“Leave some morphine at my door”

Why not Xanax or Valium? World famous, Grammy winning recording artists that were in LA this past weekend never have problems with those.

  

“Cause it would take a whole lot of medication / To realize what we used to have”

I’m not an expert on morphine or anything, but I think there’s a more effective medication for memory enhancement. Wash it down with some prune juice and you’re good to go.

 

“We don't have it anymore.”

Ok, so if you haven’t noticed by now, Pete is completely conjecturing this breakup. The song is based on the flimsy premise that he doesn’t want his hot girlfriend (in all likelihood) to leave him when we can’t even assume that she intends to; it’s ridiculous that anybody would sympathize with this.  

But Pete, one reason Smoking Hot Girlfriend X might leave you is because you’re putting morphine on the Whole Foods shopping list. “Hey baby, while you’re at the store could you pick up some soy milk, those apples you like, and some morphine….yeah, morphine….oh, just taking precautions….when you get home do you want to listen to Enya and paint our feelings?”

 

“There's no religion that could save me”

If you’re interested, I’ve had relatives that found the Church of Christ’s Hair Care very comforting in times of distress.

“No matter how long my knees are on the floor”

By floor, he means assistants.

“oh”

Oh? Please, do tell.

“So keep in mind all the sacrifices I'm making / To keep you by my side / And keep you from walking out the door.”

“So what if I like shopping at thrift stores?”

“Cause there'll be no sunlight / if I lose you, baby”

“Checking in now on Live Broody Watch 7000, you’ll see that even though it is a gorgeous day here in Los Angeles this afternoon, there is a singular cloak of darkness hovering above the café in Silver Lake where Bruno Mars is eating lunch. But don’t be alarmed folks, this tends to happen just about every Thursday. In fact, the Live Broody Watch 7000 is willing to predict that the darkness front you see there will find its way onto the Billboard charts in about 5 weeks.”

“There'll be no clear skies / if I lose you, baby”

  

That’s what happens when you buy a vacation home in Seattle. Jeez, Kurt Cobain was from there and he was a happy-go-lucky guy.

“Just like the clouds, / my eyes will do the same if you walk away”

Get burned off by the sun?

“Everyday, it will rain, / rain, rain”

“Whoa buddy, not all of us precipitate. That’s ignorant.”

- Cirrus Cloud

“I'll never be your mother's favorite”

Remember that time you made fun of meatloaf night? That’s why.

“Your daddy can't even look me in the eye”

Well yeah because the brim of your hat is too low.

“Oooh if I was in their shoes, I'd be doing the same thing”

Basically, this line is signifying this entire verse is pointless. Let’s recap the essence of the last 3 lines: “Your parents don’t’ like me. I agree with their judgment.”  The verse isn’t even relevant to the song’s premise. Since the girl is with him, she obviously doesn’t give much credence to what her parents think. It’s really only filler targeted at hormonal teenage audience who still fall under their parents’ jurisdiction.  

Maybe in the next two lines the verse will come together.

“Saying there goes my little girl / walking with that troublesome guy”

Nope.

“But they're just afraid of something they can't understand”

 Like this song.

“Oooh well little darling watch me change their minds”

Skills: musician, singing, writing, teeth

Weaknesses: busted for cocaine, bouts of depression, writing a song that made Cee Lo Green famous enough to be a viable reality TV star, stated like 1 minute ago you would willingly become a drug addict

Good luck impressing the parents with that résumé.

“Yeah for you I'll try, I'll try, I'll try, I'll try”

One more time please, so we all can hear.

“I'll pick up these broken pieces 'til I'm bleeding”

A little more menial than jumping in front of trains, but it’s the thought that counts I guess.

“If that'll make it right”

I think this will make it right.

[Insert broody chorus]

“Ooooh Don't just say”

Say what? Are you going to make us wait until the next line? Ok fine I’m up for a round of emo charades. Ok, ummmm, 7 letters…got it….Grammys! Stratus***! I’ll try? Since when do apostrophes not count?   

*** It’s a type of cloud. I spent way too much time looking at clouds on Wikipedia today.

“Goodbye…”

Whatever, Hang Man is better.

“…don't just say, goodbye”

Fine you win, you don’t have to rub it in.

“I'll pick up these broken pieces 'til I'm bleeding / If that'll make it right”

If somebody knows what he did other than bruise his girlfriend’s apples or lose one of her patterned socks in the dryer I’m all ears.

“Cause there'll be no sunlight / if I lose you, baby”

So I pulled these lyrics off a website called metrolyrics.com. In the comments section for this song somebody with the user name Charles31862 wrote “Feels like how my marriage is ending and my fight to save it.”

Listening to Bruno Mars isn’t exactly a turn-on, Charles.  

“There'll be no clear skies / if I lose you, baby”

Angela92820: “Love it, love it. Lots of bittersweetness - love and loss. I think anybody can relate to the opening stanza, at some point in their life.” (sic’d)

So everyone that has split from their significant others has felt the need to do copious amounts of drugs to forget the relationship? Essentially, become a living embodiment of Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. But yeah, everyone totally does that.

Pete might be on to something

“Just like the clouds, / my eyes will do the same if you walk away”

Luefelia60390: “this song bring tears to my eyes”

It’s called rain.

“Everyday, it will rain, / rain, rain, rain”

Abby59878: “It makes my heart melt too espicially after watching Breaking Dawn Part 1 ;w; Taylorr is soo sexyy.” (sic’d, again)

A math equation for you: melting teenage hearts + Twilight + Taylor Lautner + thinly veiled sexual subtext**** + Bruno Mars = gobs and gobs of money.

**** If you haven’t seen Breaking Dawn the first 30 minutes is structured as a lead in for Pattinson to vampire bang Kristen Stewart. There’s a wedding, yada yada yada, then honeymoon, then vampire banging. And the whole time before vampire banging it’s, like, knowing looks of seduction and the werewolf guy getting mad because apparently vampire banging is dangerous for humans and Stewart walking into the honeymoon suite, immediately looking at the bed with a slight “aww shucks I’m about to get effed by a supernatural creature” giggle and the word “virgin” getting thrown around like one of Chris Brown’s girlfriends. BUT THEY NEVER SAY THE WORD “SEX” AND IT’S INFURIATING! It’s like, who do you think you’re trying to fool?  And this movie is marketed to teenage girls and it’s so painfully obvious that it’s playing up the sexual curiosity angle in young viewers to contribute to its already massive global popularity. Not only is it manipulative and amateur-ish storytelling, but it’s also a little disturbing when you consider that parents are taking their oft-very young kids to see this and encouraging them to read the books “because reading is good for you.” Other, more intellectual people have written essays about this but I just wanted to throw my two cents in.

You’re right Pete, everyday it will rain. It will rain mounds of cash.

***

The listener is left hanging and developing conclusions at their own leisure. But for Pete’s sake, I hope his girlfriend doesn’t leave him for the other singer/songwriters in her neighborhood (back off Mayer). Pete is obviously a tormented soul that doesn’t know how to handle prosperity or hang onto a good thing. As long as he keeps his fridge stocked with granny smiths, I think he will be ok.

As for the blog, thanks to anyone that is reading this or has read any posts in the past year; it’s only worth doing if people are reading. And I’m humbled people would even want to read me essentially rambling for 1500 words anyway. This year I’ll try to deliver fresh, sometimes thought-provoking material on a more consistent basis (I averaged about a little more than 1 post per 2 weeks; I can and should be writing more). So that means no more Bruno Mars.

Maybe.

Fun with Roman Numerals: A Super Bowl 46 Primer

Super Bowl XLVI* (taking place in Indianapolis) is upon us, meaning that the hype machine is All Systems Go from now through Sunday.

* Yes, I had to look up the correct Roman Numerals. Hey NFL, there’s a reason we stopped using that antiquated system. What, are we going to start feeding Christians to lions now during the Pregame Show?

I like that the Super Bowl is 2 weeks after the conference championships; in years past, sometimes it would fall on the following Sunday. While it was cool that we didn’t have to wait an extra week for the game, the result was often a sluggish contest. For players, that Super Bowl week must be a chore: you have to travel, participate in Media Day, answer stupid media questions every other day, satisfy family/friend ticket requests, nurse injuries**, and oh yeah try to practice and prepare for the BIGGEST DAMN GAME OF YOUR LIFE THAT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WILL WATCH AND IF YOU SCREW UP YOU WILL BE A PUNCHLINE UNTIL YOU DIE.

** Another positive to waiting a week: teams have a greater chance of being full strength by game time.

However, with the extra down time until the game, people need a way to kill time. And no, the Pro Bowl isn’t one of them. As a result, we have the media coming up with all sorts of ridiculous stories just so ESPN has something to air:

Is Eli Manning a better QB than Tom Brady?!?! (No)

If he wins, will Eli be considered a greater QB than his brother? LOL Awkwaaaaaaaaard! (No)

Rob Gronkowski is wearing a protective boot, OMGZ! Is he going to miss the game?!?! (No, he will play, even if he has to inject copious amounts of pain killers)

Uh oh, Antrel Rolle said he’s confident the Giants will win. You going to take that crap, New England? Bulletin Board material! (What the hell else is he supposed to say? God forbid he shows confidence in his teammates)

And yes, those have really all been storylines the past 2 weeks, and are probably some of the more relevant ones.

So if you’re like me and sick of the sports news cycle, below is a Super Bowl XLVI primer, if you will., with all the things you need to know heading into the game. Since the Super Bowl is more spectacle than football game, some of entries aren’t really related to the actual game. Below, I will also include my pick.

Hell, to get in the mood, I’ll even use Roman Numerals.

The Lombardi Trophy, towering above Lucas Oil Stadium. You think other stadiums are jealous of how well endowed Lucas Oil is?

 I. Commercials

Every year the commercial hype is a bit overstated. When was the last time you stopped watching a Super Bowl and thought, “well that game sucked, but at least Pepsi made a raucous ad!” Probably never.

Every year someone makes the same joke that they will use the game as the time to use the restroom so that they don’t miss the commercials. But by the end of the game, when we’re all loaded on beer and cheap nacho cheese, we’re thinking about how much we don’t want to go to work the next day more than Danica Patrick’s sideboob on the Go Daddy spot*.

* There are exceptions, however. Remember the Budweiser “wassssup” ads? Yeah, that stuck around for a while. Advertising works.

The most anticipated commercial this year is a Honda spot in which Matthew Broderick reprises his iconic role as Ferris Bueller. The ad is readily available to watch online; I haven’t seen it yet because a) I don’t care, b) Ferris Bueller stopped being relevant when Principal Rooney took nude photos of 14-year-olds, c) I’m going to see it Sunday anyway.

We embrace Super Bowl commercials because they are mildly more entertaining than the average commercial we see every day. But we ignore that this is just corporate competition. Given that the Super Bowl will be the most watched thing on TV this year, big corporations need to make their product as memorable as possible to stand out. Sorry to burst your bubble if you thought the Super Bowl advertisers wanted to make an interesting commercial just because it will add to the day’s festivities.

This isn’t to say Super Bowl commercials are bad or evil. More like they just are. We shouldn’t take them any more seriously than we take other TV commercials. We should take them at face value for what they are: 30 seconds of white noise that try to entice you to buy something.

With all that said, some commercials are really fantastic. Below are 2 of my favorites. The first one is, all joking aside, a more thoughtful and more interesting love story than most romantic comedies, as well as the Twilight series. The second is my all time favorite for reasons I haven’t figured out. Maybe I just enjoy koala abuse:  

As promised, koala punching. I'm mature:

II. Food

Last year, we began a new food tradition. Whoever is playing in the Super Bowl, we try to match the food/beer with food from those cities. For example, if the Chicago Bears made the Super Bowl, we would have deep dish pizza, and if the Detroit Lions made the Super Bowl, we would have whatever Prince Fielder left for everyone else. It’s a just a fun, white people way to get into the game more. You can steal the idea if you like. 

This is a different type of post, but Prince Fielder wouldn't be invited to my Super Bowl party

If not, then typical junk food selections are fine. However, the color green should not be found, unless it’s lettuce on a hamburger. But you can do better than a hamburger. Think wings, ribs, and messy food of that ilk. The more animals (koalas, perhaps?) that were killed in the name of food coma, the better.

For drinking, at least 1 beer per quarter is mandatory; but remember, you have work the next day, so I advise against over-doing it. Increase dosage if you’re a 49ers fan.

 III. National Anthem

The Simpsons have the funniest bit about the national anthem ever. Before Homer’s big fight against Mike Tyson-spoof Drederick Tatum, Michael Buffer announces in the ring that “Due to popular demand, we will forgo our national anthem.” It’s an evil truth that most Americans don’t really care about the anthem, except then we feel like we need to pretend to care in light of national tragedy.

This year, Kelly Clarkson will sing the national anthem before the game. Afterwards, she will play defensive tackle for the Patriots.*

* Two fat jokes in the last 300 words? Stay classy, Andrew.

 IV. Halftime Show

Thanks to Janet Jackson flashing some nip during the Super Bowl XXXVIII halftime show (and the subsequent FCC freak out), the performances have been watered down with relics that baby boomers grew up listening to. Since that incident, we’ve had these relatively safe performers: Paul McCartney, The Rolling Stones, Prince, Tom Petty, Bruce Springsteen, The Who, The Black Eyed Peas (who were so bad, it was the first time in history that people ever said “thank God Usher has a cameo, he’s saving the show”). 

Not that I mind the recent trend of old performers (minus the Peas). I would prefer listening to classic rock over contemporary pop any day.

But this year’s performer is Madonna. Whenever I’ve told someone who the halftime performer is, I’m met with some variation of “really, why her?” I can’t think of a relevant Madonna moment from the past decade that I can make fun of. Oh yeah she like kissed Britney Spears or something in a completely staged, headline grabbing incident.* Is the NFL reverting from its pattern of conservative halftime show selections? Will Madonna clamor for hanky panky in lieu of acting like a good virgin?

* “Burn the witches!” – Rick Perry

Likely not. Madonna is a lot of things, but she isn’t stupid. The last thing she wants is to create a backlash and, thereby, future earnings. The Super Bowl halftime show is nothing but an attention grabbing cash grab for pop stars; negative public feedback is counterproductive. The Spears incident was on MTV, a network whose slogan may as well be “Where Same Sex Kisses Happen.”

This performance will be on NBC. Expect a boring, conservative show, per usual at the Super Bowl.**

** Although, you know NBC execs are secretly hoping for something controversial to happen. Your move, CBS.

V. Postgame

After some billionaire collects a trophy because the players he bankrolled were better than the other owner’s bankrolled team, the network showing the Super Bowl will use it as a lead in for another “event” program (called a lead out program). Since the Super Bowl is such a ratings boon, the show following the game will always get huge ratings; the other networks don’t bother trying to compete and most people just leave the TV on that station because whateverwhynot. Last year, 26.8 million (!) people watched Glee, an amazing total for a show that alienates essentially all straight men, i.e., football watchers. The previous year, the premiere of Undercover Boss scored 38.6 million viewers, probably because it was the premiere and it is a more user-friendly, brain dead program than a narrative show. You get the point.

This year, a new season of The Voice premieres after the game.* If you haven’t seen the show (like me, I’m just guessing), it’s an American Idol rip off where 4 judges (Cee Lo Green, Aguilera, the Maroon 5 guy, some country music singer) choose contestants without looking at them, but rather by…wait for it…. only hearing their own voice. How magical. Cue unicorns and rainbows and fresh baked cookies and everything that is good in the world.

* Resisting Christina Aguilera fat joke. She's really not that big anyway. Everyone needs to chill out about that.

"Bring me Solo and the Wookie, er, yeah you're good. You advance to the next round."

So what I’m getting at is, it’s ok to turn off your TV when the game is over.

VI. The Game: Patriots vs. Giants, sponsored by hype

As long as we don’t have high expectations, we’ll all be a lot happier. I usually state that Super Bowl XXX was when I began watching the game, even though I don’t remember that game too much. I remember it was Dallas beats Pittsburgh, but that’s about it.

That’s usually the problem with the Super Bowl: for as much build up and attention the game receives, the game rarely lives up to the hype. Since that game, I count 5 Super Bowls that were memorable in some way.* There have been other games that were close, but either the score was closer than the flow of the game indicated or they were just poorly played.

* XXXII (Elway helicopter spin); XXXIV (Titans one yard short); XXXVI (Pats pull off huge upset of Rams); XLII (Helmet catch; end of Pats perfect season); XLIII (James Harrison 100-yard INT return). All those games have iconic plays and were great games. The other ones? Not so much.

If we go back to games before my football watching time, there are some grisly final scores. 49-26. 52-12. 55-10. 46-10. Green Bay won the first two Super Bowls by a combined 68-24 score. I mean, 55-10? We rarely see blowouts that lopsided in the regular season. No Super Bowl has ever gone to overtime. Yet of the 10 playoff games last month, 2 went to OT (and it should have been 3, if not for Baltimore botching that last FG attempt; not all the blame lies with Billy Cundiff, but that’s another story).

This game has all the makings of a classic. It’s a rematch of the classic Super Bowl XLII. Two huge media markets and two of the more popular teams in the sport. Superstar players on both sides of the ball.

But that’s the trap we fall into. If we adhere to Super Bowl track record, it’s likely the game sucks. That’s how I’m leaning, anyway. The Patriots are small favorites, but the Giants look like the superior team. The Pats will score, but their weak secondary will be exploited by the Giants’ stud receivers and their defense will put enough pressure on Brady to create a couple mistakes.

I think the final score will be closer than the game actually was; maybe the Pats get a cheap TD in garbage time.

My pick: A Giants victory will make me feel better about the 49ers losing.

My pick, part 2: No it won’t. Really Kyle Williams? Really? Screw you. I hope the White Sox suck and your dad gets fired.

My pick, part 3: Ok, that was mean. But seriously, eff off Kyle Williams.

My actual pick: 28-17 Giants

MVP pick: Hakeem Nicks

My playoffs record: 8-2

Enjoy the game everyone. Thanks for reading my playoff previews for the past month. I’ll be back soon with something not about football. 

This derp likely cost the 49ers a chance at the Super Bowl.

The 49ers should have Wahlberg play QB: Title Game Picks

Once again, I went 3-1 in my picks last weekend, thwarted from an undefeated weekend by the last game. Not that I’m complaining, because with the Giants victory the 49ers* get to avoid the Packers and have a home game for the right to lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Beating the Giants won’t be easy, but it’s still preferable to the alternative.

*Who picked the 49ers last weekend? This guy.**

**Who also picked the Broncos to make a game of things against the Patriots? This guy, unfortunately.

This week I’m going to run through the picks pretty quick. By now, I’ve written about the strengths and weaknesses of the four remaining teams and repeating myself is boring for all involved parties.

Some key questions this week: if Peyton Manning is retiring from football, is Rob Lowe also retiring from statutory rape (20-year old references FTW)? Did Wikipedia plan their SOPA blackout in mid-January because they knew most college students would be on break and wouldn’t have any major papers to write? Why didn’t Mark Wahlberg prevent Martin Luther King’s assassination? Who castrated Ricky Gervais before the 2012 Golden Globes? Will American Idol please end?

Mark Wahlberg: American Hero

On to the picks.

Ravens at Patriots, sponsored by the mark of the beast on Tom Brady’s forehead.

The Ravens had no business winning their game against the Texans last week. They were dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Flacco looked unimpressive per usual. TJ Yates threw for 3 INTS with no touchdowns and the Texans still had a chance to tie the game at the end of the 4^th quarter. If Matt Schaub or even, gulp, Matt “Hot Tub” Leinart had played, the Texans would be visiting Foxboro this weekend, not Baltimore.

Meanwhile, the Patriots eviscerated Tebow & Friends. The Ravens would have been hard pressed to stop the Patriots anyway, but that task is going to be more difficult this weekend if safety Ed Reed (who was hurt at the end of the Texans game) is hobbled. The Patriots will attack the middle of the field with their star tight ends. Provided Rob Gronkowski doesn’t contract a lethal form of syphilis this week, he and Aaron Hernandez will run wild. Linebacker Terrell Suggs will be, and should be, preoccupied pressuring Brady, leaving the decaying Ray Lewis to chase after New England’s speedy tight ends. 

Unlike his companion, Gronkowski's profession frowns against shots to the face

The Ravens MUST pressure Brady all day to give themselves a chance. Preferably they would be able to do it with a 4 man rush, thus leaving more guys back for pass coverage. But the Ravens rush has sputtered a bit of late, and Brady doesn’t need that much time to throw anyway.

When the Ravens have the ball, they will struggle. The Patriots had the worst defense in the NFL this season and frankly I know little about the unit in terms of personnel. But the Ravens’ offense is unimaginative and ill-suited to try to confuse the Patriots defense. Here’s the Ravens 3 plays: hand the ball to Ray Rice, throw deep to Torrey Smith, throw in the middle of the field to Anquan Boldin. Last week, the 49ers executed a brilliant sweep with Alex Smith on 3^rd & 7, a play that might have flipped the game in San Francisco’s favor. It’s the playoffs; ingenuity matters, and the Ravens lack it.

My pick: Tom Brady finally wakes up from his dream. It’s 1997, he’s Brian Griese’s backup at Michigan, and the Victoria’s Secret catalogue he keeps under his mattress* is the closest he will get to a super model.

* Again, it’s 1997. Brady probably hadn’t received his AOL CD-ROM yet.

My actual pick: 30-17, New England

Giants at 49ers, sponsored by Alex Smith > Aaron Rodgers. Ok, not really.

Both these teams pulled off tremendous upsets in the first round. Led by stout defenses, they knocked off the Saints and Packers, two of the three best offensive teams in football.

It may not seem overly impressive that the 49ers gave up 32 points to the Saints or gave up 462 yards to Brees. However, due to San Francisco’s dominant run defense, Brees had to throw the ball 63 times to accrue that many yards. And through 56 game minutes, the Niners had only allowed 17 points to the high-powered Saints; two touchdowns were primarily the fault of safety Donte Whitner, who allowed Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham to score their lengthy touchdowns through a combination of poor tackling and poor angles to the ball.

The Giants utilized their pass rush to bother Rodgers numerous times. True, the Giants were benefactors of a number of drops from Packers receivers, but with the way the Giants were scoring, it’s likely that if a few catches were converted the Giants would have won anyway.  Their victory now makes the State Farm commercials look as antiquated as the Pepsi Max commercials featuring the New York Jets.

Pop quiz: what number is greater, the calories in Pepsi Max or playoff wins for the 2011 Jets?

 The conditions this Sunday should favor the 49ers. Because I’m a loser, I’ve been keeping track of the weather conditions in San Francisco all week, hoping for rain. And luckily for the Niners, it’s been raining all week and it looks possible it will also rain on Sunday. The wet and muddy conditions benefit teams that run the ball and hinder teams that prefer throwing a lot. Hopefully, the Giants star receivers will not be able to get as much separation from the defensive backs on account of poor footing and hopefully the wet ball will be difficult for them to gather.  

Me, Jim Harbaugh, and Alex Smith, all doing our best rain dance

The problem for Alex Smith and the Niners offense is that the Giants aren’t going to be stupid like the Saints, brining the house on blitzes and leaving Vernon Davis one-on-one. The Giants only need to rush 4 guys. Star cornerback Corey Webster will match up with WR Michael Crabtree who, even if he sucked last week (3 drops from what I remember), is San Fran’s* only above average wideout. If he’s neutralized, Davis will see multiple coverages all geared towards shutting him down. And if Smith can’t find open guys quickly, the Giants defensive line will eat him alive.

* “San Fran” is slightly more acceptable than “Hotlanta.” Slightly.

For the Giants, they only need a couple big plays from Eli and the receivers. The defense will do the rest. The 49ers dream season ends here. Harbaughs across the country mourn and aggressively shake hands while sitting shiva.

My pick: I’m trying not to jinx the 49ers by predicting victory.

My actual pick: 17-10, New York

My playoffs record: 6-2

Enjoy the games. Be back in a couple weeks for a Super Bowl preview.

Roomy Camrys and the NyQuil Defense: Divisional Round Picks

Not to brag or anything (ok, to brag), I went 3-1 in my picks from the Wild Card round and, save the final scores, was pretty spot-on in my analysis of why the winning team would win*.

* Andre Johnson would give Yates a deep threat and open the field for Foster, Pacman got beat on the deep TD by Johnson, Bengals upset bid was overblown, Saints have good run game that Lions can’t stop, Lions would score but not nearly enough, Giants pass rush would bother Matt Ryan, Michael 

Turner sucks.

But boy was I wrong about that Broncos game. Roethlisberger’s injury hurt Pittsburgh a lot, but the loss of Center Maurkice Pouncey insured the Broncos would get pressure all game. And remember when I said that Ryan Clark’s absence would be irrelevant? Well, on that final touchdown pass in OT, the Steelers could have really used a Safety to help out Ike Taylor.

I’m going to cut myself some slack though because I was picking against God. So without divine intervention, I really went 3-0 last week. Plus, did you see Roethlisberger’s hat in his postgame press conference? He looked like Don Draper's redneck offspring.  After seeing his hat, I sure felt like a winner even if I picked incorrectly.   

Now I know why he resorts to rape (allegedly)

Some key questions for the divisional round: Will Drew Brees ever throw an incomplete pass again? Does Aaron Rodgers do a Discount Double Check in the bedroom, and does BJ Raji watch? Does God let Satan (Bill Belichick) win this round? Are the 4 teams remaining in the NFC better than all of the AFC teams? Can Houston Texans fans locate Baltimore on a map? Are those Camry commercials featuring Kelly Clarkson, Chris Berman, James Lipton, and that other guy really just to show how spacious the Camry is**?

** I made this crack on Twitter a few days ago. You should stop reading this and follow me (@andrewkarcher).

Chris Berman and Kelly Clarkson take part in a staring contest to see who wins the last drumstick in the bucket

Now, on to the picks.

Saints at 49ers, sponsored by Dianne Feinstein kind of looking like Harvey Milk if you squint long enough

The classic sports cliché is “offense wins games, but defense wins championships.” It doesn’t really make any sense, but the thinking behind is a great defense will always beat a great offense. This isn’t always true but it’s a simple narrative that blue collar fans enjoy.

Except I doubt whoever thought of that line imagined an offense quite like the Saints.

I described New Orleans’ offensive potency last week, and they didn’t disappoint in their thrashing of the Lions; after being held to 10 points in the first half, they exploded for 35 points in the second half. During the game, I asked rhetorically “how do the Saints ever NOT score?”

Full disclosure: I’ve been a 49ers fan since they beat the Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX (if those Roman numerals represent something other than 29, I screwed up), when my malleable, adolescent brain liked the idea of rooting for a winning team that sported shiny gold helmets. Since LA hasn’t had an NFL team in almost 20 years, it kind of just stuck.

So I might be completely biased in my analysis of this game because I’m just excited that the 49ers are in the playoffs for the first time since cell phones had cameras: but I think the 49ers are going to win this game. And no, part of my thinking isn’t that Brees will accidentally OD on NyQuil the night prior to the game. Or that a 49ers mole will slip NyQuil into Brees’ Gatorade bottle. This is a non-NyQuil victory I’m predicting.

"It's ok Drew, go back to sleep. I'm sure Chase Daniel will be fine in your absence."

Part of it is a gut feeling. New Orleans is playing offense at an unsustainably high level, and EVERYONE is picking them. I can’t say I necessarily blame EVERYONE, but if there’s a safe bet for an upset this weekend, this game is it. Coach Jim Harbaugh is going to light a fire under his team’s ass all week with pep rallies and pom poms, decrying how his 13-3 team can be underdogs at home to a team that thinks defense is optional.

Part of it is based on actual football analysis. If the Saints are to lose, it would be to a team like the 49ers. To beat the Saints, you need to a) run the ball, and run it well, a lot, b) control the time of possession, c)force turnovers, d) avoid turning the ball over and e) pressure Brees. All 5 of those things are basically all the 49ers do, and they did them all to great success, i.e. a 13-3 record and essentially wrapping up a playoff berth before you carved your Thanksgiving turkey.

As far as Yards Per Carry, the 49ers are actually a middling bunch, averaging only 4.1. Like Michael Turner, Frank Gore isn’t the same RB he used to be; however, he is younger and a little more useful in passing downs. But what the 49ers lack in skill they make up for in persistence. Only 2 more teams (Houston and Denver) ran the ball more in the regular season. As I wrote last week, the Saints have a weak run defense that the Lions couldn’t really exploit. Well, the 49ers are more than happy to exploit it. If they run the ball, convert 3^rd downs, and keep Brees off the field, they will have a great shot at victory.

If the 49ers have a joker card, it’s Alex Smith. The much maligned QB was taken #1 overall (Aaron Rodgers was selected 24^th overall*) in the 2005 draft and has disappointed. How he still has a starting gig is a mystery.

* /slams face into keyboard

Patrick Willis after just learning Aaron Rodgers could have been his QB

 Yet, with Harbaugh, Smith has become not-terrible (yes, that’s a compliment in this context). He’s not spectacular and the 49ers won’t beat anyone via their downfield passing game, but he only threw 5 INTs all year and made plays when he needed to. New Orleans loves to blitz; likewise the 49ers allowed the 6^th highest sack rate, so Smith can expect to see a healthy dose knockdowns in the game. If he delivers the ball accurately amidst pressure, the 49ers will hold a major advantage, since the Saints defense is pretty weak.

When Brees has the ball, the 49ers can answer with a defense that tallied 42.0 sacks on the year, 7^th best in football. The defense is also sending 3 players to the Pro Bowl (LB Patrick Willis, DT Justin Smith, CB Carlos Rogers), and that isn’t including rookie of the year contended Aldon Smith, who accrued 14.0 sacks and 2 forced fumbles on the year. In reality, this is where the game will be decided. Recalling last week, I wrote the Saints boast 3 offensive linemen who were selected for the Pro Bowl. If they give Brees ample time this game, the Niners don’t have a prayer because if San Francisco does have a defensive weakness, it’s that you can throw deep on them. The Saints know running the ball on San Francisco is a fruitless endeavor, and they will throw. And throw. And throw. The 49ers must pressure and sack Brees, and probably force an interception or two.

The 49ers also have a great kicker and punter, but nobody cares and I’ve already written way too much about this game and could probably write another 1000 words. It’s time to move on.

My pick: I say lots of bad words under my breath while watching.

My actual pick: 26-24, San Francisco. Hold me. 

Broncos at Patriots, sponsored by the internet blowing up if Denver wins

The Broncos shouldn’t win this game. The Broncos won’t win this game. Tom Brady will throw for however many yards Tom Brady damn well feels like throwing for. All I really need to say is Patriots Good, Broncos Bad.

I wish I could take credit for this

Demariyus Thomas won’t have another Calvin Johnson Lite type game because Eric Decker is likely going to miss the game and New England won’t be as stupid as Pittsburgh when scheming their defense. The Pats will force the Broncos to run (and they will successfully to an extent) and force Tebow to complete short throws in the middle of the field (he’s better throwing it deep). The Broncos will get some points because the Patriots have the worst defense in the league, but they won’t be able to stop Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and the best offense in the league not named Green Bay or New Orleans.

But the Broncos are going to cover the spread and the Pats will sweat out a closer than expected victory. I have no idea why.

That’s all I got for ya. Just enjoy the ride.

My pick: In a possible sign that God is frustrated with Tebow, a frog drops from the sky. The frog then catches more passes than Chad Ochocinco.

My actual pick: 31-27, New England

 

Texans at Ravens, sponsored by Old Spice Commercials jumping the shark

But yeah, the Ray Lewis Old Spice commercial where he blows up Saturn was the last one that made me laugh.

Anyway, the Ravens are probably the most overrated team in the playoff field. I likened them to the Chargers several times this year in that they have bushels of talent but will lose games to inferior teams (Titans, Seahawks, Jaguars). My theory is that the Ravens are a team that feeds off “emotion” more so than other teams. If you watch a Ray Lewis pep talk before the game, you’ll know what I mean:

And now his dance: 

This is great and all, but often they blow their emotional load and can’t recover the next week. This scenario played out 3 times this season. Two of their losses came the week following victories over the Steelers, their fiercest rival for the better part of the last decade. Another loss was a 12-7 defeat at the hands of the Jags on Monday Night Football, a week after crushing the Texans (who still had Schaub at that point and were about to make a run as one of the NFL’s best teams; then Schaub got hurt).

All 4 Ravens losses came on the road, where they are an ordinary team. But at home, which is where this weekend’s game will be played, they turn into Beast Mode and terrorize the opposition with a relentless pass rush (48.0 sacks, 3^rd most in football) led by LB Terrell Suggs and DT Haloti Ngata*. The pass rush allowed the Ravens to give up the 4^th fewest passing yards in the league. Other than the 49ers, the Ravens have the best remaining defense in the playoffs. This being the first home playoff game for Baltimore in some time, I expect this to be one of those games where they feed off the crowd and Ray Lewis hemorrhages after delivering an impassioned pregame speech. Pray for T.J. Yates and his rookie soul.  

* The “G” is silent, which totally makes sense.

However, on offense, the Ravens are nothing spectacular. QB Joe Flacco would be considered a bust if playing for a team with a crap defense. Instead, he had the good fortune of being drafted by the Ravens, who often win in spite of Flacco**. This season, Flacco completed only 57.6% of his passes (26^th out of 34 qualifying QBs; yes, Tebow is last), his Yards Per Attempt were only 6.66 (24^th, and also a number that may lead to Tebow assassinating Flacco) and his TD/INT ratio was quintessential Flacco: a very mediocre 20/12. 

** This isn’t to say Flacco always sucks. In fact, he has moments where he looks like an elite QB and shows the tools that made him a first round pick. The final TD drive in the second Steelers game, the one where he threw 2 TD passes to WR Torrey Smith (Smith dropped the first one) was a picturesque 2-minute drill.

The Ravens do however employ Ray Rice, who tallied over 2000 yards from scrimmage thanks to his elite pass catching skills to go along with 15 TDs. Rice also had the pleasure of running behind Fullback Vonta Leach, a terrific lead-blocker that blocked for Arian Foster last year in Houston and helped pave the way for his breakout season. As we saw last week the Texans have an elite defense of their own, one that shut down the Bengals RB combo of Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott. Now, those two are marginal players and Rice is a superstar, but the talent is there for the Texans to at least slow down Rice and make Flacco throw.

If Flacco is dropping back, the Texans will be able to get pressure and possibly lead Flacco to make a dumb mistake or two. The Ravens don’t possess elite receivers to bail Flacco out if he gets in trouble. The aforementioned Torrey Smith is a burner but an inconsistent rookie with stone hands, and Anquan Boldin is, at this point in his career, a possession receiver coming off recent knee surgery. Jonathan Joseph should have little trouble shutting down whoever his assignment is.

While writing this I started to talk myself into the idea off an upset. But then everything comes back to the Ravens being undefeated at home this season, against a rookie QB and a franchise that may experience a letdown after winning their first ever playoff game. For the Texans to win, Arian Foster needs to have the game of his life. Against the 2^nd best rush defense in the NFL? Doesn’t seem likely.

My pick: 20-10, Houston

My actual pick: 20-10, Baltimore

 

Giants at Packers, sponsored by moron Packers fans that buy “stocks” for the “publicly owned” Packers. No really, read this.

I could almost copy/paste my analysis for 49ers-Saints into this section. If the Giants are to beat the Packers, they will need to accomplish similar things that the 49ers will need to accomplish this weekend.

Like last week, the Giants will need their elite pass rush to pressure All-World QB Aaron Rodgers. If the Giants can’t rush with their front 4, especially against an under-manned and under-talented Packers offensive line, they’re toast.

The problem is that pressuring Rodgers often isn’t enough. The Giants also need to keep him in the pocket; if Rodgers escapes the pocket, like Roethlisbrger, he is deadly piecing together broken plays or just running himself for a first down or a dreaded Discount Double Check touchdown*. The Packers run game is poor with Ryan Grant, James Starks, or whoever the hell isn’t injured, but it hardly matters. Rodgers will dink and dunk to death, then throw bombs to his bevy or talented pass catchers (Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, who’s more talented than he is skilled at actually catching the ball, but whatever). In another cliché, he “takes what the defense gives him.”

* A move that, in case you forget, reminds you that Aaron Rodgers is really really white. 

A fanny pack AND a lame TD celebration? Yep, Aaron Rodgers is the whitest person ever

When the Giants have the ball, they would be well-advised to try to run as much as possible, similar to what the Niners will do this weekend. Ahmad Bradshaw appears to be healthy and weight-conscience Brandon Jacobs has been running well of late. The two combined for 155 yards on 28 carries last week against the normally stout Falcons run D.  If the Giants run successfully this weekend in Green Bay, eat clock, and keep Rodgers off the field, their chances of victory increase exponentially.

As demonstrated last week in their Atlanta demolition, the Giants are a terrific passing team, even if Victor Cruz was quiet by his own lofty standards. Eli was efficient. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham combined for 3 TDs. It all seemed so effortless. The Packers defense shouldn’t pose too much problems for Eli, either. What Green Bay has in big names, it lacks in actual quality. Guys like Charles Woodson, BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams, Charlie Peprah, and Sam Shields are all still there, but for whatever reason this year they haven’t been able to stop anyone.

If there is one thing the Pack D excelled in, it was forcing turnovers. Their group intercepted the ball 31 times this year, 8 more than second place team New England. Now, these numbers are skewed a bit. Since the Packers kicked everyone’s ass, they forced teams to throw the ball more to try and catch up. More passes thrown = more opportunities for interceptions. With that said, 31 picks is a lot and is certainly the strength of the Packers defense.

If Eli can avoid throwing interceptions, he will cut off the life blood of the Packers and be well on his way to a monster game.

But the Packers are the champs, and the defense is largely the same as last year’s respectable Super Bowl winning unit. Look for them to make a couple plays that will decide the game.

Oh and the Giants? Yeah, they’re not stopping Rodgers. A pass rush is nice and they might get to Rodgers a few times. But Rodgers is crafty enough and good enough to exploit the terrible Giants secondary.

The game will be a shootout, but the Packers have more defensive weapons to pull out a victory.

My pick: The cameras will show at least one fan sans shirt in the stands. He’ll be drunk.

My actual pick: 35-28, Green Bay

My playoff record: 3-1

Enjoy the games and I'll be back next week with Title Game previews.