Once again, I went 3-1 in my picks last weekend, thwarted from an undefeated weekend by the last game. Not that I’m complaining, because with the Giants victory the 49ers* get to avoid the Packers and have a home game for the right to lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Beating the Giants won’t be easy, but it’s still preferable to the alternative.
*Who picked the 49ers last weekend? This guy.**
**Who also picked the Broncos to make a game of things against the Patriots? This guy, unfortunately.
This week I’m going to run through the picks pretty quick. By now, I’ve written about the strengths and weaknesses of the four remaining teams and repeating myself is boring for all involved parties.
Some key questions this week: if Peyton Manning is retiring from football, is Rob Lowe also retiring from statutory rape (20-year old references FTW)? Did Wikipedia plan their SOPA blackout in mid-January because they knew most college students would be on break and wouldn’t have any major papers to write? Why didn’t Mark Wahlberg prevent Martin Luther King’s assassination? Who castrated Ricky Gervais before the 2012 Golden Globes? Will American Idol please end?
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| Mark Wahlberg: American Hero |
On to the picks.
Ravens at Patriots, sponsored by the mark of the beast on Tom Brady’s forehead.
The Ravens had no business winning their game against the Texans last week. They were dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Flacco looked unimpressive per usual. TJ Yates threw for 3 INTS with no touchdowns and the Texans still had a chance to tie the game at the end of the 4th quarter. If Matt Schaub or even, gulp, Matt “Hot Tub” Leinart had played, the Texans would be visiting Foxboro this weekend, not Baltimore.
Meanwhile, the Patriots eviscerated Tebow & Friends. The Ravens would have been hard pressed to stop the Patriots anyway, but that task is going to be more difficult this weekend if safety Ed Reed (who was hurt at the end of the Texans game) is hobbled. The Patriots will attack the middle of the field with their star tight ends. Provided Rob Gronkowski doesn’t contract a lethal form of syphilis this week, he and Aaron Hernandez will run wild. Linebacker Terrell Suggs will be, and should be, preoccupied pressuring Brady, leaving the decaying Ray Lewis to chase after New England’s speedy tight ends.
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| Unlike his companion, Gronkowski's profession frowns against shots to the face |
The Ravens MUST pressure Brady all day to give themselves a chance. Preferably they would be able to do it with a 4 man rush, thus leaving more guys back for pass coverage. But the Ravens rush has sputtered a bit of late, and Brady doesn’t need that much time to throw anyway.
When the Ravens have the ball, they will struggle. The Patriots had the worst defense in the NFL this season and frankly I know little about the unit in terms of personnel. But the Ravens’ offense is unimaginative and ill-suited to try to confuse the Patriots defense. Here’s the Ravens 3 plays: hand the ball to Ray Rice, throw deep to Torrey Smith, throw in the middle of the field to Anquan Boldin. Last week, the 49ers executed a brilliant sweep with Alex Smith on 3rd & 7, a play that might have flipped the game in San Francisco’s favor. It’s the playoffs; ingenuity matters, and the Ravens lack it.
My pick: Tom Brady finally wakes up from his dream. It’s 1997, he’s Brian Griese’s backup at Michigan, and the Victoria’s Secret catalogue he keeps under his mattress* is the closest he will get to a super model.
* Again, it’s 1997. Brady probably hadn’t received his AOL CD-ROM yet.
My actual pick: 30-17, New England
Giants at 49ers, sponsored by Alex Smith > Aaron Rodgers. Ok, not really.
Both these teams pulled off tremendous upsets in the first round. Led by stout defenses, they knocked off the Saints and Packers, two of the three best offensive teams in football.
It may not seem overly impressive that the 49ers gave up 32 points to the Saints or gave up 462 yards to Brees. However, due to San Francisco’s dominant run defense, Brees had to throw the ball 63 times to accrue that many yards. And through 56 game minutes, the Niners had only allowed 17 points to the high-powered Saints; two touchdowns were primarily the fault of safety Donte Whitner, who allowed Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham to score their lengthy touchdowns through a combination of poor tackling and poor angles to the ball.
The Giants utilized their pass rush to bother Rodgers numerous times. True, the Giants were benefactors of a number of drops from Packers receivers, but with the way the Giants were scoring, it’s likely that if a few catches were converted the Giants would have won anyway. Their victory now makes the State Farm commercials look as antiquated as the Pepsi Max commercials featuring the New York Jets.
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| Pop quiz: what number is greater, the calories in Pepsi Max or playoff wins for the 2011 Jets? |
The conditions this Sunday should favor the 49ers. Because I’m a loser, I’ve been keeping track of the weather conditions in San Francisco all week, hoping for rain. And luckily for the Niners, it’s been raining all week and it looks possible it will also rain on Sunday. The wet and muddy conditions benefit teams that run the ball and hinder teams that prefer throwing a lot. Hopefully, the Giants star receivers will not be able to get as much separation from the defensive backs on account of poor footing and hopefully the wet ball will be difficult for them to gather.
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| Me, Jim Harbaugh, and Alex Smith, all doing our best rain dance |
The problem for Alex Smith and the Niners offense is that the Giants aren’t going to be stupid like the Saints, brining the house on blitzes and leaving Vernon Davis one-on-one. The Giants only need to rush 4 guys. Star cornerback Corey Webster will match up with WR Michael Crabtree who, even if he sucked last week (3 drops from what I remember), is San Fran’s* only above average wideout. If he’s neutralized, Davis will see multiple coverages all geared towards shutting him down. And if Smith can’t find open guys quickly, the Giants defensive line will eat him alive.
* “San Fran” is slightly more acceptable than “Hotlanta.” Slightly.
For the Giants, they only need a couple big plays from Eli and the receivers. The defense will do the rest. The 49ers dream season ends here. Harbaughs across the country mourn and aggressively shake hands while sitting shiva.
My pick: I’m trying not to jinx the 49ers by predicting victory.
My actual pick: 17-10, New York
My playoffs record: 6-2
Enjoy the games. Be back in a couple weeks for a Super Bowl preview.
What strikes me most about Brady is that more than any other quarterback, his form is perfect when he throws with planted feet. Forcing him to toss on the run would probably be the 49's only chance.
ReplyDeleteThis is true. The problem with that is that Brady gets rid of the ball so quickly that the pass rush has little time to disrupt him. I hate how good he is.
DeleteAlso, you better not have jinxed the 49ers.
I have to disagree about the Niners, especially with Eli Manning leaving practice early more than once this week.
DeleteAs far as Pats v Ravens go, I think you are spot on although I wouldn't mind seeing a rematch of the Thanksgiving game (especially if Snyder and Staley are in good health. We need a good o-line) Seeing the Harbaugh brothers against each other in a super bowl showdown would be pretty awesome.