Red Rifles and Red Contacts: NFL Wild Card Weekend

In my last post, I mentioned that my next post would be New Years-related. I lied, nobody cares about New Years anymore.

Back in November, I began a series in which I write about the myth of east coast sports fans being superior to west coast sports fans, under the premise it would be in 3 parts. I lied. I’m done with that, for a couple of reasons. First, I really liked part 1 and in hindsight feel any more elaboration would be redundant. Second, it stopped being timely like 6 weeks ago.

So my apologies for the flakiness. Even though this is a personal hobby and I don’t get paid, I still like to finish what I start.

But, the benefit is with 2012, I’m off to a fresh start and not tied down with past promises. With that said, I’m about to commit myself to a post for the next month.

In sifting through some past posts for this blog, I realized I have not written about the NFL at all. When I write about sports, it appears, I tend to stick to baseball because it’s my favorite and I’m probably the most knowledgeable about it. But I watch a ton of NFL as well.

This season was the first time I seriously played fantasy football, and if you ask anyone I played with, I was obsessed. Much of my days were consumed with trying to trade for players I didn’t own. Much of that is because I had a crappy, Pittsburgh Pirates-type draft. But much of that is also because I have a problem. As of the last 5-ish weeks of the season, I only had 1 guy on my roster that I drafted (Michael Turner, who is red for a reason that I will explain latter). And even though I wasted a first round pick on Michael Vick, I still managed to advance to my league’s championship, where I was promptly crushed.

Countless hours were spent ruminating trade scenarios, trying to figure out who I should pluck off the waiver wire because they could break out a few weeks down the line (Ben Tate FTW), fretting while watching the real-life games on Sunday, and praying to the football deities that Maurice Jones-Drew won’t be downgraded to Questionable. And I lost. It was all pointless. And yet, I’ll do it again next year.

The day I use a draft board for fantasy football is also the day I will be single

So why am I telling you this? Because with the playoffs starting, I’m looking forward to watching football like a normal person, with no pretend team implications. But with the aid of fantasy, I’m probably more knowledgeable about the NFL than I have been before.

To test my knowledge, I’m going to pick the playoff games through the Super Bowl. Also, if a player is highlighted in red, it’s because they screwed me over one way or another in fantasy and I want them 

thrown into a fiery pit for eternity. With snakes. And Russell Brand.

On to the picks. 

Bengals at Texans, sponsored by Ten Gallon Hats and Fast Food

The least interesting game of the weekend, brought to you by 2 of the least interesting franchises in the sport. Even Cincinnati doesn’t find their team particularly interesting; their season finale against division rival Baltimore required a Buy One Get One Free ticket promotion to sell out. And this was a game the Bengals needed to win! *

* Or not, because they didn’t and made the playoffs anyway because Kansas City and San Diego also won. Or something. I propose rock-paper-scissors take the place of traditional tiebreakers. Screw strength of victory, let’s see some Roshambo (but not the one where you kick each other in the balls, thought it would be admittedly awesome to watch Phillip Rivers and Tim Tebow kick each other in the balls)!

The Bengals are led by rookie QB Andy Dalton, who looks destined to be a ginger Alex Smith**, and stud rookie WR AJ Green, who looks destined to leave Cincinnati when his rookie contract expires. In the backfield is the unremarkable Cedric Benson, who averaged only 3.9 yard per carry on the season. The defense has suffered since the loss of Cornerback Leon Hall to a season-ending Achilles injury in November. His replacement? None other than Adam “Pacman” Jones, whose one legitimate skill since being drafted is that he leads the NFL in Making It Rain (MIR). Other than that, he likes to get lost in coverage, and eat cherries, pretzels and sometimes ghosts, but only after they turn blue.

** Dalton’s nickname is the Red Rifle. I think that might also be a euphemism for an aroused male dog. The more you know.

Houston has been one of the more snakebitten teams this season. Star LB Mario Williams was lost for the season, RB Arian Foster missed substantial time at the start of the year, WR Andre Johnson injured both hamstrings and missed most of the year***, and QBs Matts Schaub and Leinart suffered season-ending injuries in consecutive games. 

*** Because he’s a dick.

Oh, screw you

Still though, the defense is solid behind LB Brian “I’m Not the Type to Use Steroids, Only Except This Time I Was” Cushing and free agent acquisition CB Jonathan Joseph. The running game is good with Foster and Ben Tate, and it’s just a little too obvious that the Bengals are going to win this game. They took advantage of an easy schedule, and they face a Houston team that will play in front of a pumped up, Jack Daniels/jalapeno popper-fueled crowd that has been waiting for Houston’s first playoff game for 10 years.

The Texans may have a boatload of injury problems, but Johnson’s return, provided he is healthy, should spread the field for Foster, who runs behind a terrific run block scheme led by Offensive Tackle Eric Winston, and provide rookie QB T.J. Yates a much-needed downfield weapon. And even with the injuries, are the Bengals really better than the Texans at anything? The passing game is decent, but Joseph should help neutralize Green and the pass rush should bother the rookie Dalton.

My pick: I nod off at least 3 times during this field goal fest

My actual pick: 17-16, Houston

Steelers at Broncos, sponsored by King James

If you’re looking for an upset this weekend, keep looking. Yes we’ve all heard about the magic of Tebow and all the unicorns he creates and all the football games he wins because he’s “gritty” and “a leader.” But the fact of the matter is, if Marion Barber stays inbounds OR holds onto the ball in Week 14, the Broncos aren’t playing this weekend. The truth is, during the “magical” Broncos win streak, they A) didn’t play anybody good, and B) were kept in games by the Von Miller-led defense.

And then Tom Brady and the Patriots waltzed into Denver in Week 15, kicked little Timmy’s ass, and now the Broncos are spiraling because the defense stopped playing well. And since Tebow sucks*, there’s nothing really the Broncos can do about it.

* Like, he’s the worst QB I’ve ever seen. His one redeemable skill is that he can run, but even that backfires sometimes. He’s notorious for turning 5 yard loss sacks into larger sacks. Like this: 

Then you have the Steelers, who in an injury-ravaged down year still won 12 games and are still probably one of the best 5 or 6 teams in the sport. They’ll be without leading tackler and Safety Ryan Clark because the Steelers would prefer he didn’t die in a game they won’t need him. They’ll also be without RB Rashard Mendenhall for the duration of the playoffs after suffering a knee injury in Week 17. This shouldn’t be a huge issue, though, as Mendenhall had an unspectacular season and Isaac Redman is a serviceable backup ** that simply lacks the big name cachet of Mendenhall. Ben Roethlisberger is still recovering from an ankle injury, but will still play.

** If you care for elaboration, read this Bill Barnwell piece from Grantland. Scroll to the section titled “Mendenhall for Naught.”

The Steelers’ strength is their passing game, anyway. Young, speedy wideouts Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown should expose an overrated Champ Baily and a relatively weak Broncos secondary. Another geriatric defensive back, Safety Brian Dawkins, likely will not suit up for the game due to injury. Wallace and Brown are perfect compliments: Wallace, maybe the fastest WR in football, is the deep guy, opening things up underneath for Brown, who also has big play ability.

If Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil aren’t able to put pressure and, more importantly since he makes so many plays outside the pocket, sack Ben Roethlisberger, it’s going to be a long day for Tebow and the Miracles.  Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LaBeau loves to blitz (and guys like James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are quite good at it; OLB LaMarr Woodley will also be back for Pittsburgh), making Tebow’s already weak passing skills an even greater liability. For the Broncos to win, RB Willis McGahee needs to have the game of his life. It ain’t happening.

The only reason I’m not picking a bigger blowout is because of Roethlisberger’s high ankle sprain and Denver’s ability to drain the clock when on offense.

My pick: 4 Steelers are smote

My actual pick: 24-6, Pittsburgh

Lions at Saints, sponsored by the cute narrative that a football team’s success helps rebuild a city after catastrophe

These two played in Week 13 in the Superdome, and the Saints won 31-17, although it didn’t feel that close. The problem for the Lions is that what they do well, the Saints do better. A lot better. And the weaknesses the Saints have can’t really be exploited by the Lions.

Thusly, the Saints gave up 5.0 YPC on the season; the Lions don’t really have a running game, finishing 29^th in total yards on the ground. The one competent RB the Lions have, Kevin Smith, is so brittle that I wouldn’t be surprised if he was related to the Samuel L. Jackson character from Unbreakable.

So the Lions, led by QB Matthew Stafford and the best WR on the planet, Calvin Johnson, will need to throw the ball to keep up with the Saints. And throw. And throw.

The problem with that, of course, is that Drew Brees is the Saints QB, and he’s in the discussion for best QB of the past decade. He just threw for 5,476 yards on the season, nearly 400 yards clear of Dan Marino’s 27 year-old record. He also threw 46 TDs (with only 14 INT) and possesses a wide array of offensive weapons at his disposal, including breakout star Tight End Jimmy Graham (who broke the most receiving yards for a TE in NFL history record until Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski broke that record a mere hours later) and RB Darren Sproles, who broke the NFL record for most all-purpose yards (rushing + receiving + return yards). The Saints also employ an underrated running game with 4 capable backs (Sproles, Mark Ingram, Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas), and although they don’t run as 

often as other teams, they still racked up 4.9 YPC on the season, good for 4^th in the NFL.

So yeah, the Saints offense is pretty decent.

Meanwhile, the Lions strength is in their pass rush, led by Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril, and Kyle Vanden Bosch, who judging by the below picture looks like he has something inside of him that Tebow would try to exorcise. However, the Saints have one of the stronger offensive lines in the league. Three of their linemen will represent the NFC in the Pro Bowl (Tackle Jermon Bushrod * and Guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks). And even if the Pro Bowl is the bastard of All-Star Games, it’s still damn impressive to send 3 offensive linemen.

* Tee-hee

Drew Brees sees your un-intimidating contact lenses, and raises you 6 TD passes

 Suh’s presence probably won’t be felt all that much anyway with the Saints strong protection**. And even with good players on Detroit’s defensive line, you can still run on them, to the tune of 5 yards per carry on the year.

** Also provided he doesn’t curb stomp Roger Goodell before the game.

I like Detroit to get their fair share of points. But I like New Orleans to get an even fairer share of the points pie. Also, expect Detroit to make a few dumbass penalties throughout the game. The group is woefully undisciplined under hot-head coach Jim Schwartz (8.0 penalties per game, third worst rate in the NFL), and if New Orleans goes up early and gets the crowd going, Detroit may just Unsportsmanlike Conduct their way out of the playoffs.

My pick: 512-21, New Orleans

My actual pick: 41-21, New Orleans

Falcons at Giants, sponsored by East Coast Bias

This game is the toughest for me to figure out. I really want to pick the Falcons so I at least would have picked one underdog this weekend, but I can’t bring myself to do it. Atlanta has enough offensive firepower to hang with the Giants behind QB Matt Ryan, resurgent TE Tony Gonzalez, and WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones, but I think that’s part of the problem.

The myth of the Falcons is that they have a good running game. But if you’ve ever watched Michael Turner, you know that isn’t totally true. Turner did finish 3^rd in rushing, with a respectable 4.5 YPC, and scored 11 TDs. But I think he sucks. And maybe I’m just bitter because I owned him all season in fantasy and whenever I watched him, it seemed like he would get stuffed at the line of scrimmage 9 plays in a row, then break free for 15 yards (after writing this, I read somewhere that Turner was tackled behind the line of scrimmage more than any other RB; I just don’t remember where I read that). Turner’s long runs, I think, masked his decline. He’s 29, ancient for a RB, with a lot of mileage since being in Hotlanta.* He looks slow and can’t beat anyone to the outside anymore. If the Falcons are to beat the Giants, they will need a more balanced attack.

* I just realized white people shouldn’t be allowed to say “Hotlanta.” Scratch that, nobody should be allowed to say “Hotlanta.”

Because even if Atlanta scores points against a weak Giants secondary, it’s unlikely their mediocre defense will be able to contain Eli Manning and his talented trio of receivers (breakout star Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham).

Like I said, the Giants secondary is bad, but their pass rush is other worldly. Atlanta’s mediocre offensive line will need to contain Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and All-Pro Jason Pierre-Paul, QB menace and field goal blocker extraordinaire. If those guys can pressure Ryan and collect some knockdowns and sacks, the Giants should be able to squeak out a victory. Who knows, it’s the playoffs, maybe the game turns on a Umenyiora stripsack or something. 

"One, Two, JPP's coming for you"

Here’s where Turner would have helped. Runs and play-action passes could have helped alleviate the pressure Ryan will face. But Turner isn’t good enough anymore, and I think the Falcons know it. The Falcons know to have a shot, they are going to have to throw 40 times this game because Turner won’t give them what they need. If Turner is on the field, that generally means Atlanta is running; he is worthless catching the ball and not great at pass protection.  So the Giants can load the box and shut him down. If Jason Snelling or Jacquizz Rodgers are on the field? It’s all hands on deck for Atlanta, because the Giants are coming. And since their pass rush is so good, they rarely need to blitz, allowing more guys to cover the Atlanta pass catchers. If the running game isn’t working, I expect Atlanta to run some screen plays for the dynamic rookie Rodgers, to help shake off the pass rush.

The key to the game will be how Atlanta’s pass protection holds up. If they play up to snuff, I like Atlanta in a minor upset. If not, I like the Giants to make a few more defensive plays than Atlanta, which will propel them to victory and a Divisional Round date with Green Bay.

Basically, have fun while it lasts, New York.

My pick: That I won’t say “Hotlanta” ever again

My actual pick: 28-27, New York

Thanks for reading. Enjoy the games and I’ll be back next week.