Roomy Camrys and the NyQuil Defense: Divisional Round Picks

Not to brag or anything (ok, to brag), I went 3-1 in my picks from the Wild Card round and, save the final scores, was pretty spot-on in my analysis of why the winning team would win*.

* Andre Johnson would give Yates a deep threat and open the field for Foster, Pacman got beat on the deep TD by Johnson, Bengals upset bid was overblown, Saints have good run game that Lions can’t stop, Lions would score but not nearly enough, Giants pass rush would bother Matt Ryan, Michael 

Turner sucks.

But boy was I wrong about that Broncos game. Roethlisberger’s injury hurt Pittsburgh a lot, but the loss of Center Maurkice Pouncey insured the Broncos would get pressure all game. And remember when I said that Ryan Clark’s absence would be irrelevant? Well, on that final touchdown pass in OT, the Steelers could have really used a Safety to help out Ike Taylor.

I’m going to cut myself some slack though because I was picking against God. So without divine intervention, I really went 3-0 last week. Plus, did you see Roethlisberger’s hat in his postgame press conference? He looked like Don Draper's redneck offspring.  After seeing his hat, I sure felt like a winner even if I picked incorrectly.   

Now I know why he resorts to rape (allegedly)

Some key questions for the divisional round: Will Drew Brees ever throw an incomplete pass again? Does Aaron Rodgers do a Discount Double Check in the bedroom, and does BJ Raji watch? Does God let Satan (Bill Belichick) win this round? Are the 4 teams remaining in the NFC better than all of the AFC teams? Can Houston Texans fans locate Baltimore on a map? Are those Camry commercials featuring Kelly Clarkson, Chris Berman, James Lipton, and that other guy really just to show how spacious the Camry is**?

** I made this crack on Twitter a few days ago. You should stop reading this and follow me (@andrewkarcher).

Chris Berman and Kelly Clarkson take part in a staring contest to see who wins the last drumstick in the bucket

Now, on to the picks.

Saints at 49ers, sponsored by Dianne Feinstein kind of looking like Harvey Milk if you squint long enough

The classic sports cliché is “offense wins games, but defense wins championships.” It doesn’t really make any sense, but the thinking behind is a great defense will always beat a great offense. This isn’t always true but it’s a simple narrative that blue collar fans enjoy.

Except I doubt whoever thought of that line imagined an offense quite like the Saints.

I described New Orleans’ offensive potency last week, and they didn’t disappoint in their thrashing of the Lions; after being held to 10 points in the first half, they exploded for 35 points in the second half. During the game, I asked rhetorically “how do the Saints ever NOT score?”

Full disclosure: I’ve been a 49ers fan since they beat the Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX (if those Roman numerals represent something other than 29, I screwed up), when my malleable, adolescent brain liked the idea of rooting for a winning team that sported shiny gold helmets. Since LA hasn’t had an NFL team in almost 20 years, it kind of just stuck.

So I might be completely biased in my analysis of this game because I’m just excited that the 49ers are in the playoffs for the first time since cell phones had cameras: but I think the 49ers are going to win this game. And no, part of my thinking isn’t that Brees will accidentally OD on NyQuil the night prior to the game. Or that a 49ers mole will slip NyQuil into Brees’ Gatorade bottle. This is a non-NyQuil victory I’m predicting.

"It's ok Drew, go back to sleep. I'm sure Chase Daniel will be fine in your absence."

Part of it is a gut feeling. New Orleans is playing offense at an unsustainably high level, and EVERYONE is picking them. I can’t say I necessarily blame EVERYONE, but if there’s a safe bet for an upset this weekend, this game is it. Coach Jim Harbaugh is going to light a fire under his team’s ass all week with pep rallies and pom poms, decrying how his 13-3 team can be underdogs at home to a team that thinks defense is optional.

Part of it is based on actual football analysis. If the Saints are to lose, it would be to a team like the 49ers. To beat the Saints, you need to a) run the ball, and run it well, a lot, b) control the time of possession, c)force turnovers, d) avoid turning the ball over and e) pressure Brees. All 5 of those things are basically all the 49ers do, and they did them all to great success, i.e. a 13-3 record and essentially wrapping up a playoff berth before you carved your Thanksgiving turkey.

As far as Yards Per Carry, the 49ers are actually a middling bunch, averaging only 4.1. Like Michael Turner, Frank Gore isn’t the same RB he used to be; however, he is younger and a little more useful in passing downs. But what the 49ers lack in skill they make up for in persistence. Only 2 more teams (Houston and Denver) ran the ball more in the regular season. As I wrote last week, the Saints have a weak run defense that the Lions couldn’t really exploit. Well, the 49ers are more than happy to exploit it. If they run the ball, convert 3^rd downs, and keep Brees off the field, they will have a great shot at victory.

If the 49ers have a joker card, it’s Alex Smith. The much maligned QB was taken #1 overall (Aaron Rodgers was selected 24^th overall*) in the 2005 draft and has disappointed. How he still has a starting gig is a mystery.

* /slams face into keyboard

Patrick Willis after just learning Aaron Rodgers could have been his QB

 Yet, with Harbaugh, Smith has become not-terrible (yes, that’s a compliment in this context). He’s not spectacular and the 49ers won’t beat anyone via their downfield passing game, but he only threw 5 INTs all year and made plays when he needed to. New Orleans loves to blitz; likewise the 49ers allowed the 6^th highest sack rate, so Smith can expect to see a healthy dose knockdowns in the game. If he delivers the ball accurately amidst pressure, the 49ers will hold a major advantage, since the Saints defense is pretty weak.

When Brees has the ball, the 49ers can answer with a defense that tallied 42.0 sacks on the year, 7^th best in football. The defense is also sending 3 players to the Pro Bowl (LB Patrick Willis, DT Justin Smith, CB Carlos Rogers), and that isn’t including rookie of the year contended Aldon Smith, who accrued 14.0 sacks and 2 forced fumbles on the year. In reality, this is where the game will be decided. Recalling last week, I wrote the Saints boast 3 offensive linemen who were selected for the Pro Bowl. If they give Brees ample time this game, the Niners don’t have a prayer because if San Francisco does have a defensive weakness, it’s that you can throw deep on them. The Saints know running the ball on San Francisco is a fruitless endeavor, and they will throw. And throw. And throw. The 49ers must pressure and sack Brees, and probably force an interception or two.

The 49ers also have a great kicker and punter, but nobody cares and I’ve already written way too much about this game and could probably write another 1000 words. It’s time to move on.

My pick: I say lots of bad words under my breath while watching.

My actual pick: 26-24, San Francisco. Hold me. 

Broncos at Patriots, sponsored by the internet blowing up if Denver wins

The Broncos shouldn’t win this game. The Broncos won’t win this game. Tom Brady will throw for however many yards Tom Brady damn well feels like throwing for. All I really need to say is Patriots Good, Broncos Bad.

I wish I could take credit for this

Demariyus Thomas won’t have another Calvin Johnson Lite type game because Eric Decker is likely going to miss the game and New England won’t be as stupid as Pittsburgh when scheming their defense. The Pats will force the Broncos to run (and they will successfully to an extent) and force Tebow to complete short throws in the middle of the field (he’s better throwing it deep). The Broncos will get some points because the Patriots have the worst defense in the league, but they won’t be able to stop Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and the best offense in the league not named Green Bay or New Orleans.

But the Broncos are going to cover the spread and the Pats will sweat out a closer than expected victory. I have no idea why.

That’s all I got for ya. Just enjoy the ride.

My pick: In a possible sign that God is frustrated with Tebow, a frog drops from the sky. The frog then catches more passes than Chad Ochocinco.

My actual pick: 31-27, New England

 

Texans at Ravens, sponsored by Old Spice Commercials jumping the shark

But yeah, the Ray Lewis Old Spice commercial where he blows up Saturn was the last one that made me laugh.

Anyway, the Ravens are probably the most overrated team in the playoff field. I likened them to the Chargers several times this year in that they have bushels of talent but will lose games to inferior teams (Titans, Seahawks, Jaguars). My theory is that the Ravens are a team that feeds off “emotion” more so than other teams. If you watch a Ray Lewis pep talk before the game, you’ll know what I mean:

And now his dance: 

This is great and all, but often they blow their emotional load and can’t recover the next week. This scenario played out 3 times this season. Two of their losses came the week following victories over the Steelers, their fiercest rival for the better part of the last decade. Another loss was a 12-7 defeat at the hands of the Jags on Monday Night Football, a week after crushing the Texans (who still had Schaub at that point and were about to make a run as one of the NFL’s best teams; then Schaub got hurt).

All 4 Ravens losses came on the road, where they are an ordinary team. But at home, which is where this weekend’s game will be played, they turn into Beast Mode and terrorize the opposition with a relentless pass rush (48.0 sacks, 3^rd most in football) led by LB Terrell Suggs and DT Haloti Ngata*. The pass rush allowed the Ravens to give up the 4^th fewest passing yards in the league. Other than the 49ers, the Ravens have the best remaining defense in the playoffs. This being the first home playoff game for Baltimore in some time, I expect this to be one of those games where they feed off the crowd and Ray Lewis hemorrhages after delivering an impassioned pregame speech. Pray for T.J. Yates and his rookie soul.  

* The “G” is silent, which totally makes sense.

However, on offense, the Ravens are nothing spectacular. QB Joe Flacco would be considered a bust if playing for a team with a crap defense. Instead, he had the good fortune of being drafted by the Ravens, who often win in spite of Flacco**. This season, Flacco completed only 57.6% of his passes (26^th out of 34 qualifying QBs; yes, Tebow is last), his Yards Per Attempt were only 6.66 (24^th, and also a number that may lead to Tebow assassinating Flacco) and his TD/INT ratio was quintessential Flacco: a very mediocre 20/12. 

** This isn’t to say Flacco always sucks. In fact, he has moments where he looks like an elite QB and shows the tools that made him a first round pick. The final TD drive in the second Steelers game, the one where he threw 2 TD passes to WR Torrey Smith (Smith dropped the first one) was a picturesque 2-minute drill.

The Ravens do however employ Ray Rice, who tallied over 2000 yards from scrimmage thanks to his elite pass catching skills to go along with 15 TDs. Rice also had the pleasure of running behind Fullback Vonta Leach, a terrific lead-blocker that blocked for Arian Foster last year in Houston and helped pave the way for his breakout season. As we saw last week the Texans have an elite defense of their own, one that shut down the Bengals RB combo of Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott. Now, those two are marginal players and Rice is a superstar, but the talent is there for the Texans to at least slow down Rice and make Flacco throw.

If Flacco is dropping back, the Texans will be able to get pressure and possibly lead Flacco to make a dumb mistake or two. The Ravens don’t possess elite receivers to bail Flacco out if he gets in trouble. The aforementioned Torrey Smith is a burner but an inconsistent rookie with stone hands, and Anquan Boldin is, at this point in his career, a possession receiver coming off recent knee surgery. Jonathan Joseph should have little trouble shutting down whoever his assignment is.

While writing this I started to talk myself into the idea off an upset. But then everything comes back to the Ravens being undefeated at home this season, against a rookie QB and a franchise that may experience a letdown after winning their first ever playoff game. For the Texans to win, Arian Foster needs to have the game of his life. Against the 2^nd best rush defense in the NFL? Doesn’t seem likely.

My pick: 20-10, Houston

My actual pick: 20-10, Baltimore

 

Giants at Packers, sponsored by moron Packers fans that buy “stocks” for the “publicly owned” Packers. No really, read this.

I could almost copy/paste my analysis for 49ers-Saints into this section. If the Giants are to beat the Packers, they will need to accomplish similar things that the 49ers will need to accomplish this weekend.

Like last week, the Giants will need their elite pass rush to pressure All-World QB Aaron Rodgers. If the Giants can’t rush with their front 4, especially against an under-manned and under-talented Packers offensive line, they’re toast.

The problem is that pressuring Rodgers often isn’t enough. The Giants also need to keep him in the pocket; if Rodgers escapes the pocket, like Roethlisbrger, he is deadly piecing together broken plays or just running himself for a first down or a dreaded Discount Double Check touchdown*. The Packers run game is poor with Ryan Grant, James Starks, or whoever the hell isn’t injured, but it hardly matters. Rodgers will dink and dunk to death, then throw bombs to his bevy or talented pass catchers (Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, who’s more talented than he is skilled at actually catching the ball, but whatever). In another cliché, he “takes what the defense gives him.”

* A move that, in case you forget, reminds you that Aaron Rodgers is really really white. 

A fanny pack AND a lame TD celebration? Yep, Aaron Rodgers is the whitest person ever

When the Giants have the ball, they would be well-advised to try to run as much as possible, similar to what the Niners will do this weekend. Ahmad Bradshaw appears to be healthy and weight-conscience Brandon Jacobs has been running well of late. The two combined for 155 yards on 28 carries last week against the normally stout Falcons run D.  If the Giants run successfully this weekend in Green Bay, eat clock, and keep Rodgers off the field, their chances of victory increase exponentially.

As demonstrated last week in their Atlanta demolition, the Giants are a terrific passing team, even if Victor Cruz was quiet by his own lofty standards. Eli was efficient. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham combined for 3 TDs. It all seemed so effortless. The Packers defense shouldn’t pose too much problems for Eli, either. What Green Bay has in big names, it lacks in actual quality. Guys like Charles Woodson, BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams, Charlie Peprah, and Sam Shields are all still there, but for whatever reason this year they haven’t been able to stop anyone.

If there is one thing the Pack D excelled in, it was forcing turnovers. Their group intercepted the ball 31 times this year, 8 more than second place team New England. Now, these numbers are skewed a bit. Since the Packers kicked everyone’s ass, they forced teams to throw the ball more to try and catch up. More passes thrown = more opportunities for interceptions. With that said, 31 picks is a lot and is certainly the strength of the Packers defense.

If Eli can avoid throwing interceptions, he will cut off the life blood of the Packers and be well on his way to a monster game.

But the Packers are the champs, and the defense is largely the same as last year’s respectable Super Bowl winning unit. Look for them to make a couple plays that will decide the game.

Oh and the Giants? Yeah, they’re not stopping Rodgers. A pass rush is nice and they might get to Rodgers a few times. But Rodgers is crafty enough and good enough to exploit the terrible Giants secondary.

The game will be a shootout, but the Packers have more defensive weapons to pull out a victory.

My pick: The cameras will show at least one fan sans shirt in the stands. He’ll be drunk.

My actual pick: 35-28, Green Bay

My playoff record: 3-1

Enjoy the games and I'll be back next week with Title Game previews.